Indonesia Shares Inch Higher to Begin Week

Indonesia’s IDX Composite edged up to 6,168 in Monday morning trade, extending gains from the prior session as U.S. stock futures jumped on easing oil prices after President Trump signaled progress in Iran talks. Trump also said he wants Kevin Warsh to independently lead the Fed following the recent shakeup at the U.S. central bank. Locally, Bank Indonesia last week raised borrowing costs aggressively, underscoring its focus on rupiah stabilization. Gains, however, were capped by a sharply wider Q1 current account deficit, reflecting a narrowing trade surplus and softer global demand. Concerns also mounted after President Prabowo moved to establish a centralized export agency, raising fears of higher costs for listed firms. Transport, cyclicals, and property led advances, though energy and basic materials weighed. Notable movers included Surya Citra Media (4.5%), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (3.0%), Bukit Asam (2.6%), and United Tractors (1.5%).

Indonesian equities edged down 10 points, or 0.2%, to 6,085 in Friday morning trade, extending losses for a ninth straight session and lingering around their weakest level since April 2025. Selling pressure persisted after President Prabowo’s move to establish a centralized export agency, raising concerns over higher costs for listed firms, though ones with high domestic exposure are likely to be more resilient. Fitch Ratings also kept a negative outlook on domestic banks, citing sovereign risks. Still, a rise in U.S. stock futures helped limit further losses. Non-cyclicals, financials, and property led the fall, with major decliners including Kawasan Industri Jababeka (-8.2%), Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (-4.7%), Telkom Indonesia (-3.7%), and Astra Intl. (-3.6%). Markets are on track for a second weekly drop, down almost 10% so far and about 30% ytd. Traders now await Q1 current account data due later today, after the previous release showed a swing into deficit on a widening oil trade gap.

Indonesian shares tumbled 136 points or 2.2% to 6,185 in early Thursday trade, extending losses for an eighth straight session and lingering at their weakest level in 13 months. A Wall Street rally overnight failed to lift sentiment as investors shunned risk after President Prabowo tightened export rules on key commodities, including palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys, mandating shipments through a single state-owned exporter. Caution also mounted ahead of the Q1 current account data due Friday, following a Q4 deficit driven by a wider oil gap. Still, losses were capped by Bank Indonesia’s 50bps hike to 5.25% on Wednesday, aimed at stabilizing the rupiah after repeated record lows since April. The government, meanwhile, projected 2027 growth at 5.8% to 6.5%, keeping its 8% target for 2029. Declines were broad, led by transport, energy, and industrials, with Barito Pacific (-9.9%), Medco Energi (-8.7%), Darma Henwa (-7.7%), and Amman Mineral Intl. (-5.7%) among the steepest laggards.