Indonesia Shares Extend Strength Ahead of Q1 GDP Data

Indonesian stocks rose 43 points or 0.6% to 7,015 in Tuesday morning trade, marking gains for a second straight session as U.S. equity futures edged higher following Wall Street’s overnight weakness due to renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and supply risk fears. Sentiment was buoyed by April inflation easing to 2.42%, the lowest since August 2025 and comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s 1.5%–3.5% target. However, gains were capped by caution ahead of Q1 GDP data releases later today, with markets expecting a slowdown from Q4’s three-year peak amid fiscal strain and rising debt repayments. Meanwhile, the rupiah hit a record low of around IDR 17,400 per dollar on Monday, stoking doubts over policy effectiveness as foreign reserves dwindle. Financials, basic materials, and infrastructure led the advance, with Barito Pacific (5.1%), Semen Indonesia (4.5%), Bank Central Asia (2.5%), Bank Mandiri (1.8%), and AKR Corporindo (1.3%) among notable movers.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite jumped 108 points, or 1.5%, to 7,065 in early trade on the first trading day of May, bouncing back from a 2% plunge previously as bargain hunting emerged after the index hit a three-week low. Sentiment was also boosted by comments from U.S. President Trump on efforts to “free” ships stranded on the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over global trade flows. Locally, the government signaled a proactive stance in addressing a widening budget strain and energy challenges, with measures including panda bond issuance, energy security deals, and subsidy recalibration. However, gains were capped by caution ahead of key domestic releases. April inflation and March trade figures are due later today, followed by Q1 GDP Tuesday and April forex reserves in the coming days. Advances were broad-based, led by basic materials, infrastructure, and cyclicals. Notable gainers included Chandra Asri (5.2%), Charoen Pokphand (3.2%), Indofood (2.2%), and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (1.3%).

Indonesian shares slid 98 points, or 1.4%, to 7,001 in Thursday morning trade, reversing modest gains from the prior session and tracking broader weakness across Asia after Wall Street’s mixed close overnight. The U.S. reportedly plans for an extended blockade of Iran, lifting oil prices and weighing on risk appetite. Meantime, the Fed left rates unchanged for a third meeting, but four officials dissented. For April, local markets are heading for a fourth straight monthly decline, down about 0.4%, due to inflation concerns following higher non-subsidized fuel prices. Caution also mounted ahead of key domestic releases next week, including April inflation. Still, losses were offset by the launch of downstream projects worth IDR 116 trillion to boost industrial output. All sectors fell, with industrials, basic materials, and energy leading drops. Notable losers included Bank Jago (-6.7%), ESSA Industries (-6.3%), and Mitra Adiperkasa (-4.7%). Markets will be closed Friday for a holiday.