Indonesian Stocks Recover From Morning Weakness

Indonesian shares rose 59 points, or 0.7%, to 7,513 in Monday’s afternoon trade, reversing early losses and extending gains for a fourth straight session. The IDX Composite approached a one-month high as sentiment improved after February retail sales saw their strongest growth in near two years, driven by robust household spending during Ramadan and the festive season. Optimism over fiscal discipline also supported the upturn, with revenue mobilization and spending prioritization expected to keep the stance manageable. Meanwhile, the 15% free-float regulation officially took effect on March 31, up from 7.5%, with companies under an IDR 5 trillion market capitalization required to comply by March 2029. Energy, cyclicals, and basic materials drove the gains, with top performers including MD Entertainment (18%), Barito Pacific (16.4%), Energi Mega Persada (12.6%), and Medco Energi (5.8%). Traders now await the March trade data from China, the main trading partner, scheduled for Tuesday.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite slipped 53 points, or 0.6%, to 7,406 on Monday, snapping a three-session gain as U.S. futures tumbled. Investor sentiment soured after President Trump said the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz following a breakdown in talks with Iran, threatening a fragile two-week ceasefire. Locally, the rupiah lingered around a record low of 17,100 last week amid persistent capital outflows, as March forex reserves fell to USD 148.2 billion, the lowest since July 2024. Investors also turned cautious ahead of February retail sales data due later today, following resilient household demand in January. Losses were partly cushioned by optimism over Indonesia’s fiscal discipline, with revenue mobilization and spending prioritization expected to keep the stance manageable. Financials, infrastructure, and healthcare led losses, with notable laggards including Sumber Global Energy (-2.6%), Astra Intl. (-2.0%), Bank Tabungan Negara (-1.9%), and XL Smart Telecom (-1.6%).

Indonesian stocks jumped 153 points, or 2.1%, to 7,457 in early Friday trade, up for a third session to a near one-month peak. Overnight strength on Wall Street boosted sentiment amid ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran toward a resolution to the six-week Middle East conflict. Markets are set to end the week firmly higher, up about 6% so far, lifted by optimism over resilient Q1 growth, on robust domestic demand during the festive season. In top trading partner China, producer prices rose in March, the first time in near three years, on stronger demand following Beijing’s crackdown on overcapacity and the impact of geopolitical risks. On the corporate front, Freeport Indonesia aims to restore Grasberg output to near full capacity by the end of 2026, with current production back to 40–50%. All sectors rose, led by cyclicals, basic materials, and energy, with Pantai Indah Kapuk (12.6%), Bangun Kosambi (9.5%), Elang Mahkota (8%), and Raharja Energi Cepu (6.5%) among standouts.