Indonesian Equities Surge on Middle East Ceasefire, FTSE Status

Indonesian equities jumped 198 points, or 2.9%, to 7,175 in early Wednesday trade, snapping a three-session losing streak on bargain hunting. Sentiment was also boosted by a rally in U.S. futures after President Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran just before a deadline to reopen the strait, with reports of progress toward talks. Investors welcomed FTSE Russell’s decision to keep Indonesia off its watch list, maintaining Secondary Emerging status, while noting reforms will be assessed ahead of the June 2026 review. However, strength was capped by caution ahead of March's forex reserves data later today after February’s three-month low. Meantime, Indonesia’s fiscal position remains at risk due to surging energy costs and external shocks. Gains were broad-based, led by basic materials, cyclicals, industrials, and financials. Standout movers included Trimegah Bangun Persada (6.2%), Bank Negara Indonesia (5.4%), Aneka Tambang (5.2%), Mitra Adiperkasa (5.1%), and Semen Indonesia (3.9%).

Indonesia’s IDX Composite slipped 39 points, or 0.5%, to 6,949 in Tuesday morning trade, marking a third consecutive decline as U.S. futures notably weakened after President Donald Trump signaled strikes on Iran could escalate as soon as today. Investor caution also grew ahead of key inflation data in the U.S. and top trading partner China later this week. Domestically, the 2026 state budget posted a deficit of IDR 240.1 trillion, equal to 0.93% of GDP in Q1, wider than last year as spending outpaced revenue. Still, losses were partly contained by the government’s pledge to maintain subsidized fuel prices and keep the deficit within safe bounds this year, assuming oil prices average USD 100 per barrel. Most sectors were lower, dragged by industrials, basic materials, and cyclicals. Notable laggards included Aneka Tambang (-4.1%), Astra International (-2.9%), Telkom Indonesia (-2.8%), Bumi Resources (-2.5%), and Perusahaan Gas Negara (-1.4%).

Indonesian shares fell 50 points, or 0.7%, to 6,975 in early Monday trade, extending prior-session losses amid a drop in U.S. futures after President Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tuesday, 00:00 GMT, does not reopen the strategic waterway. Investors also weighed news that Danantara’s sovereign wealth fund unit signed deals on April 1 to acquire investment management arms of state-owned banks Mandiri, BRI, and BNI, along with PT Permodalan Nasional Madani, for IDR 2.7 trillion, pending approval. On the data front, manufacturing momentum weakened in March, with PMI readings near stagnation as demand softened, while February’s trade surplus narrowed on slowing exports and elevated imports. Sectoral weakness was led by non-cyclicals, property, and healthcare, partly offset by gains in cyclicals, industrials, and energy. Notable decliners included GojekTokopedia (-3.8%), Merdeka Copper Gold (-2.5%), Charoen Pokphand (-1.6%), and Aneka Tambang (-1.4%).