Indonesia Stocks Muted Ahead of GDP Data

Indonesia’s IDX Composite tumbled 130 points, or 1.5%, to 7,976 in Friday morning trade, extending losses in the prior session after Moody’s Investors Service changed the country’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing reduced policy predictability and weaker governance under President Prabowo, who took office in October 2024. The agency, meanwhile, affirmed the Baa2 rating. Earlier on Thursday, official data released showed the economy grew 5.11% in 2025, below the government’s 5.2% target despite robust Q4 growth. Still, weakness was capped by fiscal rhetoric, with officials trying to push back against pessimistic deficit narratives and suggesting available policy space. Selling pressure was broad-based, led by energy, financial, and property stocks. Steep decliners included Impact Pratama Industri (-4.7%), Merdeka Copper Gold (-4.3%), Vale Indonesia (-3.6%), and Astra Intl. (-2.2%). Weekly, markets are poised for their third straight drop, down 4% so far.

Indonesian shares edged lower in early Thursday trade, hovering near 8,136 after two sessions of gains, as sentiment turned cautious ahead of Q4 GDP data due later in the day. Economic growth is widely expected to slow further, weighed down by lingering disruptions from last year’s Sumatra disaster. Investors also vigilantly tracked reports that negotiations on a reciprocal tariff deal with the U.S. have been concluded, pending formal signing. Attention remained on capital market reform efforts following a recent sell-off sparked by transparency concerns flagged by an international index provider, keeping investors selective, particularly in smaller-cap names. Overnight, U.S. equities closed mostly lower, pressured by a continued tech sell-off and weaker-than-expected January jobs data, adding to the cautious tone across Asia. Second-liners led declines, with MD Entertainment plunging 14.9%, alongside Martina Berto (-13.1%), Leyand Intl. (-10.4%), and Soho Global Health (-8.2%).

Indonesia’s IDX Composite was little changed in Wednesday morning trade, hovering near 8,116 after surging 2.5% in the prior session. Investors awaited Q4 GDP data on Thursday, which is expected to show the economy continuing to expand but at a slower pace following the major disaster in Sumatra late last year. Meanwhile, the government reportedly allocated IDR 12.83 trillion for a stimulus package in Q1 2026, aimed at supporting domestic demand through transportation ticket discounts, toll road tariff cuts, and the accelerated disbursement of social assistance during February–March. Losses in property, technology, and energy stocks were largely offset by gains in basic materials and transportation. Astrindo Nusantara slumped 11.9%, followed by Bumi Resources (-4.5%), Telkom Indonesia (-2.9%), and Petrosea (-1.2%). These declines contrasted with gains in major lenders, with Bank Central Asia rising 1.6% and Bank Rakyat Indonesia gaining 1.1%.