Indonesia Holds Rates Steady as Expected

Bank Indonesia held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.75% during its March 2026 policy meeting, in line with market expectations. The decision aims to bolster the stability of the Rupiah while keeping inflation within the central bank’s 2026–2027 target of 2.5% ±1%. The Rupiah weakened to Rp16,985 per US dollar on March 16, 2026, a 1.29% decline from end-February levels, as escalating Middle East tensions triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate rose to 4.76% in February 2026 from 3.55% in January, marking its highest level since March 2023. Despite global headwinds, the central bank maintained its economic growth forecast of 4.9%–5.7% for 2026. Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.39% year-on-year in Q4 2025, accelerating from 5.04% in the previous quarter and marking the strongest economic expansion since Q3 2022. The central bank also kept its overnight deposit facility rate at 3.75% and its lending facility rate at 5.50%.

Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting in February 2026, in line with market expectations. The latest decision seeks to stabilize the rupiah amid persistent global financial volatility, while also ensuring inflation remains within its 2026–2027 target range and supporting economic growth. The rupiah remains near a record low amid investor concerns over potential downgrades by MSCI Inc. and Moody’s Ratings of the country’s equities and sovereign credit rating. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate climbed to 3.55% in January 2026, its highest level since May 2023. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia expects annual inflation in 2026 and 2027 to remain within the target range of 2.5% ±1%. In addition, BI maintained its economic growth forecasts at 4.7%–5.5% for 2025 and 4.9%–5.7% for 2026. The central bank also left its overnight deposit facility rate unchanged at 3.75% and its lending facility rate at 5.50%.

Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for the 5th consecutive meeting at its January 2026 policy meeting, in line with expectations, as it sought to limit further weakness in the rupiah despite signs of slowing economic growth. The rupiah weakened by 1.53% as of January 20, 2026, compared with the end of December 2025. The central bank has delivered cumulative cuts of 150 bps since September 2024, bringing the rate to its lowest level since October 2022 to support economic growth. The decision highlights BI’s view that inflation in 2026 will remain within its target range of 2.5% ± 1%, supported by a stable rupiah and ongoing measures to sustain economic growth. BI held its GDP growth forecasts at 4.7%–5.5% for 2025 and 4.9%–5.7% for 2026. It also maintained the overnight deposit facility rate and the lending facility rate unchanged at 3.75% and 5.50%, respectively. BI still has room to resume interest rate cuts, with inflation expected to stay low this year.