Indonesia Inflation Rises to 3-Month High

Indonesia’s annual inflation rose to 3.28% in September 2026 from 3.19% in the previous month, roughly in line with market expectations of 3.3%. It marked the highest reading since June while remaining within Bank Indonesia’s 1-1/2%-3-1/2% target range. Food inflation hit a three-month peak (4.37% vs 3.86% in August), reflecting the persistent impact of El Niño disruptions. Additional upward pressures also came from housing (1.02% vs 1.01%), transport (4.84% vs 4.79%), clothing (1.20% vs 1.20%), furnishings (2.19% vs 2.0%), healthcare (2.24% vs 2.12%), communication (1.83% vs 1.72%), recreation, and restaurants (1.81% vs 1.75%), education (1.43% vs 1.20%), and personal care (7.77% vs 9.25%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and government-administered prices, eased to 2.84% from August's over three-year high of 2.92%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.30%, up from a 0.21% rise in August and broadly matching forecasts for a 0.31% gain.

Indonesia’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.19% in August 2026 from July’s three-month low of 2.28%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.13% while remaining within Bank Indonesia’s 1/2%–3-1/2% target range. Food inflation quickened (3.86% vs 2.97% in July), reflecting the impact of El Niño disruptions. Additional upward pressures also came from housing (1.01% vs 0.99%), transport (4.79% vs 5.12%), clothing (1.20% vs 1.04%), furnishings (2.0% vs 1.72%), healthcare (2.12% vs 1.96%), communication (1.72% vs 1.5%), recreation, and restaurants (1.75% vs 1.58%), education (1.20% vs 1.0%), and personal care (9.25% vs 9.04%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and government-administered prices, rose to 2.92% in August, the highest level since March 2023. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.21%, reversing a 0.14% decline in July and broadly in line with forecasts for a 0.2% rise.

Indonesia’s annual inflation eased to 2.88% in July 2026 from 3.34% in the prior month, undershooting market expectations of 3.2% and marking the lowest reading since April. The latest result remained comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s 1-1/2%–3-1/2% target range. Food inflation slowed to a six-month low (2.97% vs 4.67% in June), reflecting improving food supply conditions amid El Niño risks. Price growth also moderated for housing (0.99% vs. 1.04%), education (1.0% vs. 1.27%), and personal care (9.04% vs. 10.1%), while clothing inflation was broadly unchanged (1.04% vs. 1.0%). In contrast, inflation accelerated for transport, furnishings, healthcare, communication, recreation, and restaurants. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and government-administered prices, held steady at 2.76% in July. On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 0.14%, reversing a 0.44% gain in June and defying estimates of a 0.1% rise. It pointed to the first monthly drop since January.