Indonesia Q3 GDP Growth Beats Forecasts

Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.47% yoy in Q3 2026, accelerating from a three-quarter low of 5.29% in the previous period and exceeding market expectations of 5.2%. Private consumption remained resilient (5.04% vs 5.06% in Q2), supported by continued government measures to cushion households against inflationary pressures and higher borrowing costs. However, government spending eased sharply (8.95% vs 15.97%), and fixed investment growth slowed (6.06% vs 6.87%). On the trade front, imports (7.31% vs 9.34%) grew much faster than exports (4.59% vs 4.07%), partly reflecting higher oil and energy costs amid Middle East hostilities. By sector, activity gained traction in manufacturing (5.87% vs 4.52%, accommodation (11.22% vs 10.6%), transport/warehouse (8.03% vs 5.65%), and communication (7.13% vs 6.97%). For the first three quarters of the year, GDP grew 5.45% from the same period in 2025. The government targets 5.4% growth for 2026, following a 5.11% rise in 2025, below its 5.2% goal.

Indonesia’s economy grew 5.29% yoy in Q2 2026, exceeding market expectations of 5.1%, though it marked the slowest annual expansion since Q3 2025. The latest reading followed a 5.61% gain in Q1, which had been the strongest yearly growth since Q3 2022. Both private consumption (5.06% vs 5.52% in Q1) and government spending (15.97% vs 21.81%) rose at a softer pace. Meanwhile, fixed investment accelerated (6.87% vs. 5.96%). On the trade front, imports (8.82% vs 6.43%) rose much faster than exports (4.13% vs 0.90%), reflecting resilient domestic demand alongside improving external trade. By sector, activity eased in manufacturing (4.52% vs 5.04% in Q1), communication (6.97% vs 7.14%), accommodation and food services (10.6% vs 13.14%), and transportation and warehousing (5.65% vs 8.04%). For H1 of the year, the economy grew 5.45% from the same period in 2025. The country's GDP expanded 5.11% last year, below the official 5.2% target, with a projected 5.4% this year.

Indonesia’s GDP expanded 5.61% year-on-year in Q1 2026, accelerating from 5.39% in Q4 and exceeding market expectations of 5.3%. It marked the fastest yearly growth since Q3 2022, boosted by an acceleration in private consumption (5.52% vs 5.11%), amid support measures to boost spending during the festive season. Government expenditure picked up (21.81% vs 4.55%), while fixed investment stayed robust (5.96% vs 6.12%). On the trade front, exports slowed sharply (0.90% vs 3.25%), reflecting growing supply chain disruptions linked to the geopolitical tensions, while imports surged (7.18% vs 3.96%) on solid domestic demand. By sector, activity strengthened in wholesale/retail trade (6.26% vs 6.07%), construction (5.49% vs 3.89%), and accommodation and food services (13.14% vs 7.15%), but eased in manufacturing (5.04% vs 5.40%) and information and communication (7.14% vs 8.09%). The economy expanded 5.11% in 2025, below the government’s 5.2% target, with growth projected at 5.4% this year.