Indonesia Exports Fall the Most in 21 Months

Exports from Indonesia unexpectedly increased 11.64% year-on-year to an over three-year high of USD 26.35 billion in December 2025, recovering sharply from a 6.6% decline in November and easily beating forecasts of a 2.4% fall, marking the fastest pace since February 2025. Non–oil and gas exports rose 13.72% to USD 25.09 billion, rebounding from a 5.09% decline in November, driven by higher demand from China (13.59%) and the US (13.60%), as well as India (32.66%), ASEAN (4.47%), and the EU (13.17%). Among major commodities, exports increased mainly in animal and vegetable fats and oils (43.53%) and iron and steel (1.34%). By contrast, shipments of mineral fuels, the largest component of non–oil and gas exports, fell 9.79%. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports dropped 18.14%, due to lower crude oil exports (-41.17%), oil products (-18.07%), and gas (-11.85%). For the full year of 2025, total exports rose 6.15% year-n-year to USD 282.91 billion.

Exports from Indonesia dropped 6.6% year-on-year to a seven-month low of USD 22.52 billion in November 2025, following a 2.31% decline in October and coming in worse than market forecasts of a 0.5% fall. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since February 2024. Oil and gas exports slumped 32.88%, while non–oil and gas exports fell 5.09% to USD 21.64 billion after a 0.51% decline in October, driven by weaker demand from China (-7.35%), Japan (-12.34%), India (-30.36%), and the EU (-2.18%). Meanwhile, shipments to the US accelerated to 9.45% from 7.41% in October, despite the imposition of new US tariffs. Among major commodities, exports declined mainly in mineral fuels, the largest component of non–oil and gas exports, which plunged 18.89%, as well as animal and vegetable fats and oils (-18.81%) and iron and steel (-17.14%). Year to date, total exports rose 5.61% year-on-year to USD 256.56 billion.

Exports from Indonesia fell 2.31% year-on-year to USD 24.24 billion in October 2025, reversing sharply from an 11.41% surge in September. This marked the first decline in exports since March 2024. Oil and gas exports plunged 33.60%, weighed down by slumps in crude oil (-54.86%), oil products (-40.11%), and natural gas (-26.20%). Non–oil and gas exports also fell 0.51% to USD 23.34 billion, after surging 12.79% in September, driven by weaker demand from Japan (-5.36%) and India (-35.70%). Shipments to the US also moderated, with growth easing to 7.41% amid the imposition of new US tariffs. Exports to China slowed to 1.01%, down sharply from a 12.79% jump in September. Among major commodities, exports shrank primarily in mineral fuels, the largest component of non–oil and gas exports, which plunged 19.04%, and in animal and vegetable fats and oils (-1.13%). In contrast, iron and steel exports surged 14.68%. Year-to-date, total exports rose 6.96% year-on-year to USD 234.04 billion.