Rupiah Stays Fragile Ahead of Rate Decision

The Indonesian rupiah firmed to around IDR 17,600 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday afternoon after the central bank delivered a larger-than-expected interest-rate hike to reinforce its defense of the currency, which had recently fallen to successive record lows. Bank Indonesia raised borrowing costs by 50bps to 5.25%, marking its first rate increase since 2022. The benchmark rate had been kept at 4.75% since October. The move came as Bank Indonesia sought to curb mounting pressure on the rupiah amid persistent capital outflows, widening fiscal concerns, dividend repatriation, and rising inflation risks linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Authorities have already intensified interventions in both spot and non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets while introducing various measures to restore market confidence and limit further currency volatility. Governor Perry Warjiyo signaled policymakers would prioritize stability, with growth support to come through macroprudential efforts.

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around IDR 17,700 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday, staying close to record lows as the dollar index held at a six-week high. Sentiment remained vulnerable amid escalating U.S.–Iran tensions, stoking inflation fears and reinforcing views that U.S. interest rates could stay higher for longer. Caution also prevailed ahead of Bank Indonesia’s policy decision later today, with markets widely anticipating a 25bps hike to 5.0%, the first rise since October. Pressure on the rupiah has intensified from persistent capital outflows, fiscal strains, and inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. Also, vigilance rose before Q1 current account data after Q4 swung into deficit on a wider oil gap. Markets largely discounted the finance ministry’s plan, starting from this week, to inject IDR 2 trillion daily into bonds to stabilise the rupiah and stem foreign selling. Meanwhile, the government is marketing U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bonds, local media said.

The Indonesian rupiah weakened to a fresh low near IDR 17,730 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday, extending losses for a fourth straight session as pressure intensified while Bank Indonesia began its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 5% after holding steady since October, but worries deepened over the broader fallout from the currency’s slide. Debate sharpened after President Prabowo drew fire for remarks suggesting villagers are insulated from depreciation as they do not use dollars. Caution also heightened before the Q1 current account data later this week, after figures swung into deficit in Q4 due to a wider oil trade gap. Traders largely shrugged off Governor Perry Warjiyo’s assurance to parliament that policymakers had “increased the dosage” of intervention and stood ready with further steps, stressing conditions were “not business as usual.” Globally, the dollar index held steady ahead of FOMC minutes and flash U.S. PMI data.