Rate Risks, Natural Disasters Weigh on Rupiah

The Indonesian rupiah remained weak on Thursday, hovering just above the psychological IDR 17,000 per dollar and extending its recent slide. Pressure was driven by a firm U.S. dollar index, reinforced by geopolitical tensions after President Donald Trump, in a national address, signaled possible further military action against Iran. Domestic buffers also weakened as the trade surplus narrowed in February, reflecting subdued exports and solid import growth. At the same time, caution mounted ahead of March's forex reserves data, following February’s fall to a three-month low. Elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks continue to pose upside threats to inflation, even as annual readings eased to 3.48% in March, back within Bank Indonesia’s target range. Fiscal strain is building amid sustained energy costs and President Prabowo’s flagship program. Still, Bank Indonesia has introduced new measures to curb speculation, underscoring its priority to safeguard currency stability.

The Indonesian rupiah weakened past the key psychological level of IDR 17,000 per dollar on April’s first trading day before trimming some losses, though pressure persisted amid a broadly firm U.S. dollar index as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict lingered. Domestic data weighed further, with February’s trade surplus falling short of market expectations as exports stayed subdued while imports continued to grow at a double-digit pace, partly reflecting higher energy costs. Elevated global oil prices have also raised upside risks to inflation, despite annual figures easing to a three-month low of 3.48% in March, back within Bank Indonesia’s 1-1/2%–3-1/2% target range. Meantime, the OECD cut Indonesia’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.8% from 5.0%, citing energy prices and geopolitical risks. On the policy front, Bank Indonesia’s new measures to curb speculation against the rupiah took effect on Wednesday, though their impact may be limited by relatively thin foreign exchange reserves.

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around IDR 17,000 per dollar on Tuesday, extending its downside trend and weakening 1.3% so far in March. Pressure came from a firm U.S. dollar index as the Iran war entered its fifth week with little sign of easing. Persistently high oil prices lifted inflation risks in Southeast Asia's largest economy ahead of key data releases, including February trade and March inflation. Headline CPI jumped to 4.76% yoy in February, above the central bank’s 1-1/2% to 3-1/2% target range. Elevated energy costs also raised concerns over Indonesia’s fiscal position. At the same time, negative outlook revisions by Moody's and Fitch have heightened downgrade risks, partly linked to fiscal concerns over Jakarta’s large-scale free meal program. While officials reiterated the 3% deficit cap, sustained cost pressures may test this stance. Uncertainty also lingers over whether new central bank measures, effective April 1, can curb rupiah speculation amid limited forex reserves.