Rupiah Under Strain as Trade Data Misses

The Indonesian rupiah weakened past the key psychological level of IDR 17,000 per dollar on April’s first trading day before trimming some losses, though pressure persisted amid a broadly firm U.S. dollar index as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict lingered. Domestic data weighed further, with February’s trade surplus falling short of market expectations as exports stayed subdued while imports continued to grow at a double-digit pace, partly reflecting higher energy costs. Elevated global oil prices have also raised upside risks to inflation, despite annual figures easing to a three-month low of 3.48% in March, back within Bank Indonesia’s 1-1/2%–3-1/2% target range. Meantime, the OECD cut Indonesia’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.8% from 5.0%, citing energy prices and geopolitical risks. On the policy front, Bank Indonesia’s new measures to curb speculation against the rupiah took effect on Wednesday, though their impact may be limited by relatively thin foreign exchange reserves.

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around IDR 17,000 per dollar on Tuesday, extending its downside trend and weakening 1.3% so far in March. Pressure came from a firm U.S. dollar index as the Iran war entered its fifth week with little sign of easing. Persistently high oil prices lifted inflation risks in Southeast Asia's largest economy ahead of key data releases, including February trade and March inflation. Headline CPI jumped to 4.76% yoy in February, above the central bank’s 1-1/2% to 3-1/2% target range. Elevated energy costs also raised concerns over Indonesia’s fiscal position. At the same time, negative outlook revisions by Moody's and Fitch have heightened downgrade risks, partly linked to fiscal concerns over Jakarta’s large-scale free meal program. While officials reiterated the 3% deficit cap, sustained cost pressures may test this stance. Uncertainty also lingers over whether new central bank measures, effective April 1, can curb rupiah speculation amid limited forex reserves.

The Indonesian rupiah weakened toward IDR 17,000 per dollar on Monday, reversing gains from the previous two sessions, as the U.S. dollar index held firm amid the protracted Middle East conflict. Caution also prevailed ahead of key domestic releases this week, including March inflation and February trade data. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.76% yoy in February, breaching Bank Indonesia’s target ceiling of between 1-1/2% to 3-1/2%. Recent negative outlook revisions from Moody’s and Fitch have amplified downgrade risks. The government reiterated it has no intention of breaching the 3% budget deficit cap, although persistently elevated oil prices could test this stance and prompt policy adjustments. Further, uncertainty lingers over whether new central bank measures, effective April 1, will effectively curb rupiah speculation and stabilize the currency. As a net oil and gas importer, Indonesia remains vulnerable to rising global energy costs, which continue to weigh on the rupiah.