Indonesia Trade Surplus Narrows in March

Indonesia’s trade surplus declined to USD 3.32 billion in March 2026, from USD 4.33 billion in the same month last year, as exports fell while imports rose. Imports grew 1.51% yoy, slowing from 10.85% in February, with oil and gas imports rising 1.34% yoy to USD 3.17 billion, rebounding from a 30.36% plunge in February, while non-oil and gas imports rose 1.54% to USD 16.04 billion. Meanwhile, exports fell 3.1% yoy, marking the first decline since last November, amid disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts. Non-oil and gas exports dropped 2.52%, while oil and gas exports plunged 11.84%, due to sharp falls in crude oil (-34.36%) and oil products (-17.59%). By destination, non-oil and gas exports declined mainly to top trading partners: the US (-12.83%), India (-1.28%), and the EU (-17.63%), while exports to China surged 16.22%. For the first quarter of 2026, the country posted a USD 5.55 billion trade surplus, with exports and imports rising 0.34% and 10.05%, respectively.

Indonesia’s trade surplus declined sharply to USD 1.28 billion in February 2026, from USD 3.09 billion in the same month last year, falling below market expectations of USD 1.55 billion. Imports rose 10.85% yoy to USD 20.89 billion, slowing from 18.21% in January. Meanwhile, exports increased 1.01% yoy, easing from a 3.39% rise in January and coming in below expectations of 3.2%, marking the softest growth in exports since last November, when outbound shipments declined. Non-oil and gas exports grew 1.30% to USD 21.09 billion, supported by increases in animal and vegetable fats and oils (16.19%), iron and steel (3.31%), and electrical machinery and equipment, including parts (11.05%). Meanwhile, oil and gas exports dropped 4.25% to USD 1.08 billion, dragged down by sharp falls in crude oil (-34.24%) and declines in natural gas exports (-6.81%). In the first two months of the year, the country posted a USD 6.59 billion trade surplus, with exports rising 2.19% while imports fell 14.44%.

Indonesia’s trade surplus shrank dramatically to USD 0.95 billion in January 2026, from USD 3.49 billion in the same month last year, well below market expectations of USD 2.76 billion. It marked the smallest trade surplus since April 2025, despite Indonesia and the US recently signing a reciprocal trade deal, with Washington agreeing to maintain a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports, down from the 32% initially proposed last year. Imports jumped 18.21% year-on-year to USD 21.2 billion, driven by non-oil and gas products, which surged 16.71%, and oil and gas products, which climbed 27.52%. Meanwhile, exports grew more modestly, rising just 3.39% to USD 22.16 billion. Non-oil and gas exports increased 4.38%, supported by strong gains in animal and vegetable fats and oils, as well as electrical machinery and equipment. However, these gains were partially offset by a sharp 15.62% drop in oil and gas exports, dragged down by lower crude oil and natural gas shipments.