Zinc Hits 35-month High

Zinc futures hovered near $3,350 per tonne, holding onto their pullback from an over 3½-year high, as Boliden’s plan to resume production at Garpenberg in Q2 helped ease some supply concerns. Still, downside pressure remained limited, with fundamentals pointing to tight supply in the near term. LME inventories continued to fall, while the narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure. Declining treatment charges for zinc concentrate also highlighted constraints in raw material availability. In addition, stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.8%, and port-side concentrate inventories dropped sharply. Ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions have added to supply-side strain, although the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project may offer some relief. On the demand side, improving industrial activity in China supported sentiment, but persistent tensions in the Middle East continued to cloud the broader outlook.

Zinc futures dropped below $3,400 per tonne as investors took profits after prices surged to an over 3½-year high driven by tightening near-term supply conditions. Falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure, while lower treatment charges for zinc concentrate underscored constraints in raw material availability. Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange also declined 1.8%, while concentrate inventories at ports dropped sharply, further highlighting tight feedstock. Ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions have added to supply-side pressure, though the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project could provide some relief. Meanwhile, Peru’s zinc concentrate output showed mixed trends, falling monthly but improving from a year earlier. On the demand side, improving industrial activity in China supported sentiment, but persistent tensions in the Middle East continued to cloud the broader outlook.

Zinc futures rose to above $3,460 per tonne, their highest level since August 2022, amid tightening near-term supply conditions. LME inventories declined sharply to a one-month low and treatment charges for zinc concentrates dropped, prompting short covering. Continued inventory drawdowns on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and ongoing mine disruptions have further constrained immediate supply. However, the broader outlook remains mixed. Although Peru reported a steep monthly fall in output, global data indicated that the market moved into a small surplus in January. Additional supply from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of production at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project could also help keep the market broadly balanced going forward. On the demand side, improving industrial activity in China has added to positive sentiment. Meanwhile, investors watch developments in the Middle East, which could shape macroeconomic conditions and influence demand prospects.