Wheat Futures Fall to 3-Week Low

Wheat futures fell below $6 per bushel, the lowest in three weeks, pressured by lower oil prices and improving US weather forecasts. Crude dropped under $100 per barrel as markets reacted to signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks, easing concerns over supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Forecasts also called for rain across dry US Plains wheat areas, though traders warned some crop damage may already be irreversible. The US Department of Agriculture rated 31% of the US winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up from 30% last week but still the weakest for this period since 2023. Weekly US old crop export sales totaled 78,800 tons, below expectations, while Algeria bought roughly 390,000 to 420,000 tons of wheat in an international tender. Russia’s IKAR consultancy also cut its 2025 to 2026 wheat export forecast to 44.5 million tons from 46 million previously.

Wheat futures eased to below $6 per bushel, retreating from a nearly two-year high of $6.5 reached on April 28, as weather forecasts pointed to rainfall across dry US wheat regions this week. The latest outlook suggests that parts of the western Plains, which have been under prolonged drought stress, could receive meaningful precipitation, easing supply concerns. Market participants are also awaiting the latest US Department of Agriculture crop progress report, due after Monday’s close, for updated planting and condition data. Some areas in the central and eastern grain belt are still delayed in planting due to wet and cold conditions. On the supply side, India has resumed wheat exports for the first time in four years, taking advantage of ample domestic stocks, stronger global prices, and improved freight economics.

Wheat futures rose to $6.53 per bushel, a nearly two-year high, as severe drought across the US Great Plains threatens supply. Around 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma are affected, with more than half of Nebraska in extreme drought, putting pressure on winter wheat crops and forcing livestock producers to cut herds and rely on expensive feed. Dry conditions are expected to continue, with rainfall forecasts closely watched for relief during the critical spring growing period. Meanwhile, the USDA left winter wheat ratings unchanged at 30% good to excellent, below expectations and the weakest for this time of year since 2023, with conditions in key state Kansas also slightly worse. About 70% of the crop is in drought areas, while spring wheat planting is progressing more slowly than average due to limited fieldwork days. On the demand side, Saudi Arabia purchased nearly one million tons of wheat in a tender.