Wheat Rebounds on Renewed Supply Risks

Wheat rose to $6 per bushel, recovering from a near four-month low hit on November 4, as a tight Russian export outlook heightened concerns over global supplies. IKAR slashed its 2026–27 wheat export forecast from 42 million to 39.5 million metric tons, according to Interfax. Total grain export estimates were similarly downgraded to 49.5 million tons, from 52.8 million. Ongoing logistical disruptions across key Black Sea export corridors have hampered shipments, forcing Russian exporters to increasingly rely on rail networks and Baltic ports to maintain trade flows. However, these alternative routes are nearing capacity, leaving limited room to offset further disruptions. Meanwhile, traders are watching next week's trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington for signs of progress toward ending the conflict, with any breakthrough potentially improving the outlook for global grain trade.

Wheat rose to $6.04 per bushel, recovering modestly from a 16-week low of $5.99 on October 28, after reports that China inquired about purchasing US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year. The inquiry by state-owned trader Cofco suggests recent US-China trade discussions and potential tariff reductions could lead to broader agricultural purchases. Beijing pledged to increase purchases of US farm goods, but progress beyond soybeans has been slow, with no US wheat or corn sales recorded so far this marketing year. Wheat prices have been steadily falling since hitting a 3-1/2-year high of $7.67 on August 28, with global production expected to reach its second-highest level on record and larger harvests in Australia and Argentina adding to availability. Hopes for renewed Russia-Ukraine peace talks have also weighed on prices by raising expectations of improved Black Sea grain trade, although ongoing attacks continue to pose supply risks.

Wheat fell below $6.00 a bushel, the lowest level since early July, as US-led diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war raised hopes of a resumption in Black Sea grain trade. Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled readiness to resume trilateral peace negotiations with the US and Ukraine in early November, easing some of the market’s geopolitical risk premium. Also, Russia increased shipments through alternative routes, including Baltic ports. However, Black Sea disruptions persist, with attacks continuing in the region. Ukraine’s agriculture minister forecast an 18% decline in winter-wheat planting as farmers prepare for next year’s harvest. Meanwhile, demand for major exporters remains subdued, with US wheat sales below expectations in the week ended October 15. Increasing harvests in Australia and Argentina are adding to near-term supply. Global wheat production is expected to reach its second-highest level on record, further easing concerns over availability.