Wheat Rebounds on Renewed Supply Risks

2026-03-05 15:30 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

Wheat futures rebounded toward $5.75 per bushel as intensifying logistical disruptions in the Middle East and deteriorating US crop conditions outweighed the pressure from a record South American harvest.

While the US-Iran conflict has not directly halted wheat flows, skyrocketing diesel and fertilizer costs combined with a 4.8% jump in urea prices have created significant pro-inflationary risks for producers.

Domestic concerns are also mounting as the USDA reported a 22% month-over-month decline in winter wheat condition ratings due to low snowpack and expanding drought across the southern Plains.

These supply anxieties are colliding with a 20% projected decline in Russian exports for the 2025-2026 season as adverse weather and logistical bottlenecks in the Black Sea limit availability.

Although the US dollar remains strong, the market is increasingly focused on the March WASDE report and the potential for reduced global ending stocks to sustain this price recovery.



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