Wheat Futures Hover Around 2-Month Lows

Wheat futures rose above $5.90 per bushel in early June, staying away from a near two-month low touched on June 5, as the emergence of El Niño heightened concerns over global crop risks. The climate phenomenon, which has taken shape across the equatorial Pacific and expected to intensify in the months ahead, is likely to unleash droughts, floods, and temperature extremes that could disrupt production of key commodities, including wheat. Its impacts are also projected to intensify globally, including a wetter-than-usual winter in the southern US, drought and wildfire risks in Australia, and potential disruptions to the Atlantic hurricane season. Additional support came from short-covering and bargain hunting ahead of the USDA’s closely watched June supply-and-demand report due on Thursday, as investors monitored signs of renewed Chinese purchases of US agricultural products following Beijing’s pledge last month to buy $17 billion worth of US farm goods.

Wheat futures fell to around $5.80 per bushel in early June, hitting their lowest level since April 10, as a strong global supply outlook and subdued demand continued to weigh on prices. In Ukraine, agricultural consultancy APK-Inform raised its forecast for wheat production to 21.7 million tons from 19.9 million tons, while Russia's IKAR consultancy increased its estimate to 91.5 million metric tons from 90 million tons. Elsewhere, recent rainfall across large areas of previously parched farmland in Australia improved planting conditions and encouraged late wheat sowing. In the US, improved soil moisture in drought-stricken wheat-growing regions, together with the advancing winter wheat harvest, added to expectations of robust supplies. Meanwhile, heavy and persistent rainfall across major wheat-producing areas in China raised concerns about crop quality and harvest disruptions, but the adverse weather had been largely anticipated, and any resulting damage was expected to be limited.

Wheat decreased to 595.00 USd/Bu, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat lost 5.34%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 9.69%.