Wheat Rebounds on Monday

Wheat futures fell nearly 3% to $5.98 per bushel, easing from a nine-month high of $6.16 on March 31, as improving sentiment around the Middle East conflict reduced pressure on agricultural markets. Optimism that the war could end within weeks, after comments from President Donald Trump, briefly pushed oil below $100 per barrel, easing concerns over high fuel and fertilizer costs that had been supporting grain prices. Earlier gains in wheat were driven by tightening supply expectations, with US planting estimated at 43.8 million acres, below market forecasts, and persistent dryness across the Plains threatening crop yields. In addition, disruptions to fertilizer and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz had raised input costs globally. With energy markets stabilizing, some of that risk premium is now fading, prompting a pullback in wheat prices despite ongoing weather concerns.

Wheat prices climbed past $6.1 per bushel, the highest level since June 2024 as a critical USDA report confirmed a significant reduction in domestic acreage and inventories amid the five week conflict in the Middle East. The USDA Prospective Plantings report revealed that US wheat acreage for 2026 decreased to 43.80 million acres as persistent dryness in the Plains and surging input costs from the Persian Gulf war pressured farmers to limit production. Furthermore, grain stocks data showed that US inventories plunged to 1.30 billion bushels in the first quarter of 2026 reflecting a sharp drawdown from 1.68 billion recorded previously. While reports of potential peace talks between President Trump and Iran briefly eased broader market volatility, the supply shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to bolster agricultural commodities. With only 40% of the Kansas winter wheat crop rated in good or excellent condition the market remains highly sensitive.

Wheat prices reached $6.1 per bushel in late March, nearing their highest level since October 2024, as persistent dryness across the US Plains raised concerns over winter crop yields. Investors also awaited a critical US planting outlook report, set for release later in the day, which could further influence market sentiment. Deteriorating conditions in key growing regions, including Kansas, the nation’s top wheat producer, added to the upward pressure. USDA data showed only 40% of Kansas’ winter wheat was rated in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, down from 46% the prior week and 49% a year ago, as warm, dry weather stressed crops. Adding to the uncertainty, the ongoing conflict involving Iran is expected to have altered US farmers’ planting plans, potentially pushing spring wheat acreage to its lowest level since 1970. Rising fertilizer and fuel costs have further dimmed profit expectations, reinforcing the bullish trend in wheat futures.