UK Natural Gas Set for Sharp Weekly Drop

UK natural gas prices rose to around 99 pence a therm but remained on track for a weekly decline of more than 11% amid easing Middle East supply risks. An interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, signed on Wednesday, has seen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz begin returning to normal, with several vessels reportedly transiting the waterway on Thursday. The deal pushed UK gas prices to their lowest level since February 27, before the outbreak of the war, giving back most of the gains driven by the conflict. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, is preparing to rapidly resume production at its Ras Laffan facilities and expects output at sites unaffected by Iranian strikes to return to full capacity within a month. The resumption of LNG exports from the Persian Gulf could support Europe's efforts to replenish relatively low gas storage levels ahead of next winter.

UK natural gas prices dropped 3% to around 96.8 pence a therm, the lowest since February 27, as an interim US–Iran agreement is now in effect after both sides signed the memorandum remotely. Pakistan's prime minister said the signing means Iran will “instantly reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and the US will “immediately lift” its naval blockade on all Iranian ports. The deal also includes the permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and initiates a 60-day negotiating period to reach a final agreement on the future of Iran's nuclear program, although Trump warned he would restart the war if Tehran fails to comply with the terms of the 14-point memorandum of understanding. In anticipation of the strait's imminent reopening, a handful of vessels have started returning to the Middle East, including tankers from Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter.

UK natural gas prices fell to around 98 pence a therm, the lowest since April 17, as markets awaited further details on a US-Iran deal that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The interim accord is set to be signed in Switzerland on June 19, though the memorandum of understanding has not yet been released. President Donald Trump reiterated on Monday that the strategic waterway would be fully accessible by Friday and operate "toll-free." The prospect of restored maritime traffic through the strait has significantly eased concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil and gas flows from the Persian Gulf. However, uncertainty remains over how quickly regional production can recover, particularly after extensive damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, the world's largest LNG export facility. Meanwhile, forecasts of hot weather across Europe next week are expected to boost gas consumption.