UK Natural Gas Futures Surge to 3-Year High

UK natural gas prices rose above 190 pence a therm, up around 160% so far this year, as supply concerns intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. Britain is particularly exposed because it has limited gas-storage capacity and relies heavily on seaborne LNG imports when demand rises or renewable generation weakens. Europe has greater storage capacity but is also facing unusually low inventories, with facilities around 72% full versus a five-year seasonal average of 87%. Deliveries to the UK are about 4% below last year on a 30-day average, although imports have recovered from much sharper declines in August. Prolonged disruption through Hormuz is increasing competition between European and Asian buyers for LNG, around a fifth of which transited the waterway before the Iran war. QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on supplies to Italy’s Edison until December, while Pakistan has received an extension into November.

UK natural gas prices fell below 183 pence per therm on Friday, reversing part of the previous session’s gains amid reports of US-Iran discussions over a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade. The strait remains a major sticking point in efforts to resolve the nearly seven-month conflict, with neither side willing to relinquish control of the key waterway. LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain severely disrupted, intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for limited supplies just as the region races to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter heating season. European gas storage is currently just over 70% full, still below both the seasonal norm and the region’s target, leaving the market vulnerable to further supply disruptions. UK gas prices have fallen about 7% over the week.

UK natural gas prices rose toward 190 pence per therm on Thursday, recovering from a three-week low amid uncertainty over a resolution to the Middle East conflict that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran would never surrender to the US but remained open to dialogue and diplomacy, while setting conditions for a return to negotiations. The key waterway remains largely closed, impeding LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. Europe’s gas storage position remains a key concern as the winter heating season approaches. Storage facilities are around 70% full, still below the five-year seasonal average and the region’s 80% target. Goldman Sachs expects European and Asian gas prices to rise sharply if Gulf LNG exports remain constrained.