Soybean futures fell to around $12.40 per bushel, their lowest level since late August, as expectations for record harvests in the US and South America weighed on prices. The USDA’s October WASDE report raised its forecast for the 2026/27 US soybean crop by 1% from the previous estimate to a record 4.56 billion bushels, up 7% from the previous year. The projected yield was also revised higher by 0.6 bushels to a record 53.1 bushels per acre. In South America, favorable weather has supported planting prospects despite concerns over a potential Super El Niño. Brazil’s CONAB forecasts soybean production to rise 0.7% year over year to 181.6 million tonnes in 2026/27, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina’s planted area to increase 1% to 17 million hectares. However, stronger US exports and resilient Chinese feed demand offered some support to prices, although Brazil’s growing dominance in China’s soybean import market continued to weigh on US export competitiveness.

Soybean futures rose toward $12.6 per bushel, rebounding from a two-month low reached on October 21, as strong export demand led by China helped end an eight-session losing streak. The USDA reported 2.84 million metric tons of net US soybean export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year in the week ended October 15, sharply above 574,900 tons a week earlier. China accounted for 2.18 million tons, while export shipments climbed 75% week over week to 2.02 million tons, up 88% from the four-week average. A separate USDA announcement also confirmed a sale of 202,000 tons to China. Still, futures remained on track for a second consecutive weekly loss as the advancing US harvest and expectations for a large crop continued to weigh on prices. The USDA projects US soybean production at 4.56 billion bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year. However, analysts suggested harvest-related pressure was easing as fieldwork neared completion.

Soybean futures edged down below $12.5 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in eight weeks as investors trimmed bullish bets amid advancing US harvesting and favorable weather forecasts for the Midwest. Recent rains stalled fieldwork in parts of the Midwest, but drier weather forecasted through the end of the week is expected to allow farmers to gather what is projected to be a record-large soybean crop. US farmers now harvested 64% of the soybean crop, according to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. The harvest pressure continued to outweigh renewed Chinese demand as the USDA confirmed more sales from China. The world's top soy importer has now purchased over 60% of its 25-million-ton US soybean buying target for the 2026/27 marketing year, under the trade deal reached between the two countries. Elsewhere, farmers in Brazil had planted 26% of the projected area of their 2026/27 soybean crop as of last week, up from 15% a week earlier and above the 24% registered a year ago.