Soybeans Near 3-Week Top

Soybean futures rose above $11.8 per bushel, hitting nearly a three-week high, as firm Chinese demand continued to support prices. According to traders, China had already purchased about 7 million metric tons of US soybeans, while China’s Sinograin said it would auction 360,000 tons of imported soybeans, its fourth sale since late July, in an effort to free up storage space for incoming US supplies. Last week, the USDA raised its 2026 US soybean production estimate by by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels but lowered its yield forecast in the monthly report to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest. Looking ahead, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop prospects after weeks of heat and dryness supported prices. Traders are also monitoring a major US field tour this week for further indications on soybean and corn yield prospects.

Soybean futures rose around $11.7 per bushel, climbing off from multi-week lows as markets weighed expectations for a record US crop against a lower yield forecast. The USDA cut its 2026 soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest. However, higher planted acreage lifted projected production by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025 and above the previous record set in 2021. The larger crop also pushed projected 2026/27 ending stocks up to 320 million bushels from 310 million previously. Meanwhile, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop prospects after weeks of heat and dryness supported prices. Elsewhere, China provided a fresh demand boost, with the USDA confirming a sale of 244,000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Soybean futures fell below $11.5 per bushel, approaching a six-week low as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA’s upcoming crop report. The report will include the first survey-based estimate of 2026 US soybean yields and updated harvested acreage, with expectations for a yield of around 52.9 bushels per acre and production of approximately 4.5 billion bushels. Meanwhile, the USDA trimmed its weekly soybean condition rating to 62% good-to-excellent from 63% a week earlier, while 26% of the crop was affected by drought. Recent rain and milder temperatures provided some relief after several weeks of excessive heat and dryness across much of the Midwest. While a private sale of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans was confirmed for delivery to China in the 2026/27 marketing year, the purchase did little to offset the bearish supply outlook. Traders now continued to monitor developments in the Black Sea region, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatened grain export routes.