Soybean Futures Near 2-Week Low

Soybean futures fell below $12.1 per bushel, approaching a two-week low as expectations of ample global supplies offset support from strong US export demand and deteriorating crop conditions. The USDA lowered its good-to-excellent rating for the nation's soybean crop to 63% from 66% a week earlier, reflecting persistent heat in parts of the Midwest. At the same time, China's Sinograin plans to auction 500,000 metric tons of imported soybeans, its largest sale since January, to free up storage ahead of new US arrivals, reinforcing expectations for continued US export demand. The USDA also reported multiple soybean export sales to China earlier this month, including 340,000 metric tons and 264,000 metric tons, alongside 256,634 metric tons to Mexico. Meanwhile, Brazil is expected to export a record 115.4 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, according to crushers group Abiove, raising its outlook by 1.1% from a June projection while increasing soy crushing estimates.

Soybeans fell to around $12.0 per bushel, retreating from an over two-year high of $12.50 hit on July 24, as weaker crude oil prices weighed on the vegetable oil market, reducing optimism over biodiesel demand and pressuring the soybean complex. Oil prices tumbled after the United States and Iran paused hostilities, easing geopolitical risk and inflation concerns. Meanwhile, strong US export demand provided some support, with the USDA reporting sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and 126,000 metric tons to unknown destinations. Elsewhere, continued attacks between Russia and Ukraine have disrupted agricultural trade, including damage to grain infrastructure and shipping routes. Meanwhile, Geneva-based vegetable oil producer Allseeds suspended operations in Ukraine's Odesa region due to intensified attacks on port facilities. However, discussions on measures to safeguard Black Sea shipping have raised hopes that export flows can continue with limited disruption.

Soybean futures traded around $12.4 per bushel, remaining near their highest level since May 2024 as strong export demand, higher crude oil prices, and mounting weather concerns continued to underpin the market. USDA reported multiple soybean export sales to China this month, including 340,000 metric tons and 264,000 metric tons in recent weeks, alongside 256,634 tons to Mexico, highlighting robust overseas demand for US supplies. Additionally, elevated crude oil prices boosted expectations for soybean oil demand in biofuel production, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East heightened concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies. Weather risks also supported prices as hot and dry conditions in parts of Europe and the Black Sea region raised concerns over global crop prospects, while traders continued to monitor US weather during the key pod-setting stage for soybean development.