Soybean Futures Surge Above $11

Soybean futures rose around $11.7 per bushel, climbing off from multi-week lows as expectations for a record US crop outweighed a lower yield forecast. The USDA cut its 2026 soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest. However, higher planted acreage lifted projected production by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025 and above the previous record set in 2021. The larger crop also pushed projected 2026/27 ending stocks up to 320 million bushels from 310 million previously. Meanwhile, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop prospects after weeks of heat and dryness supported prices. Elsewhere, China provided a fresh demand boost, with the USDA confirming a sale of 244,000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Soybean futures fell below $11.5 per bushel, approaching a six-week low as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA’s upcoming crop report. The report will include the first survey-based estimate of 2026 US soybean yields and updated harvested acreage, with expectations for a yield of around 52.9 bushels per acre and production of approximately 4.5 billion bushels. Meanwhile, the USDA trimmed its weekly soybean condition rating to 62% good-to-excellent from 63% a week earlier, while 26% of the crop was affected by drought. Recent rain and milder temperatures provided some relief after several weeks of excessive heat and dryness across much of the Midwest. While a private sale of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans was confirmed for delivery to China in the 2026/27 marketing year, the purchase did little to offset the bearish supply outlook. Traders now continued to monitor developments in the Black Sea region, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatened grain export routes.

Soybean futures rose above $11.6 per bushel, attempting to rebound from a five-week low, supported by stronger Chinese demand and higher crude oil prices. Reports of renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of clarity over a deal to reopen the critical waterway lifted oil prices. Agricultural prices often tracked energy markets due to the growing use of crop-based feedstocks in biofuel production. In addition, the USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year beginning September 1, following Beijing's purchase of about 1 million tons of US soybeans last week. Meanwhile, ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued to pose risks to Black Sea grain exports, although expectations of another large Black Sea harvest weighed on prices. Additional pressure came from expectations of ample global supplies, with brokerage StoneX forecasting the 2026 US soybean harvest at 4.47 billion bushels.