Palm Oil Set for First Weekly Loss in Four, Monthly Gain Intact

Malaysian palm oil futures snapped recent declines, with prices hovering near MYR 4,700 per tonne amid gains in rival edible oils and stronger crude oil prices. Markets recovered from a two-week low, as exports remained firm, with cargo surveyors reporting a 46.9%–67.7% surge in shipments during Oct. 1–25 from the same period in Sept., partly driven by pre-Diwali buying in top consumer India. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s Finance Ministry is reportedly reviewing a proposal to suspend crude palm oil export taxes as stockpiles hit a record in Sept. and are expected to top 3 million tonnes by year-end amid peak seasonal production. However, contracts are on track to post their first weekly drop in four, down around 3% so far, weighed by ample inventories. Timely rainfall between Sept. and Nov. also eased El Niño-related risks. Still, futures are on track for a monthly gain of around 1.3%, after a 5.8% decline in Sept. Traders now await China’s official PMI data for further demand signals.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell over 1.5% to near MYR 4,600 per tonne, extending recent losses and hitting their lowest since mid-October. A stronger ringgit weighed on sentiment, alongside weaker Dalian palm oils and Chicago soyoils. Meanwhile, crude oil prices retreated amid renewed Middle East diplomatic efforts, reducing palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Record-high Malaysian inventories added pressure, while caution grew ahead of China’s official PMI data in the key consuming market. Separately, EU palm oil imports for the 2026/27 season, which began in July, fell 21% yoy to 0.8 million tonnes. Still, expectations of tighter supplies next year due to El Niño-related weather risks and stronger domestic biodiesel demand in top producer Indonesia offered some support. Export demand also stayed firm, with cargo surveyors reporting a 46.9%–67.7% surge in shipments during October 1–25 from the same period in September, partly driven by pre-Diwali buying in top consumer India.

Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded from recent declines, hovering above MYR 4,700 per tonne as bargain hunting emerged after prices hit a near two-week low. A weaker ringgit and firmer soyoil prices on the Dalian market also lent support, alongside a recovery in crude oil prices that improved palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Expectations of dwindling supplies next year due to El Niño-related weather risks and stronger domestic biodiesel demand in top producer Indonesia further boosted sentiment. On the demand side, cargo surveyors reported a 46.9%–67.7% surge in shipments during October 1–25 from the same period in September, partly supported by festive buying from India, the world's largest palm oil importer. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to remain above MYR 4,600 in November, lifted by potential increases in Indian and Chinese purchases amid tightening supplies of competing edible oils. However, record-high Malaysian inventories continued to cap gains.