Palm Oil Moves Toward 26-Month High

Palm oil climbed above 4,970 ringgit per tonne, moving toward its highest level since December 2024, as traders assessed the potential impact of severe forest fires across Indonesia, the world’s largest producer. Thick haze has spread across parts of Southeast Asia, disrupting harvesting as workers are diverted to firefighting efforts, while prolonged smoke and reduced sunlight could also weigh on palm fruit development. The unusually severe El Niño weather pattern is exacerbating dry conditions, increasing the risk of fires and prolonging cross-border haze. More than 202,000 hectares have reportedly burned across Borneo and Sumatra, with pollution levels rising in Indonesia as well as Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines. However, an expected increase in rainfall around October could help contain the fires ahead of the wet season. Palm oil also benefited from firmer crude and vegetable oil prices.

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,950 per tonne, extending recent gains as firmer edible oil prices on Dalian markets and higher crude oil prices lifted sentiment amid heightened concerns over a prolonged supply disruption from the Middle East. Rising El Niño risks added a bullish factor, with drier conditions threatening Southeast Asian production. Output in top grower Indonesia is projected to fall 2.9% yoy in 2027. Demand prospects also improved in India, where refiners imported record volumes of soyoil and the most palm oil in six months ahead of festivals. However, gains were capped by a weaker ringgit and a lack of direction from Chicago markets, which were closed for a public holiday. Meanwhile, ample supply remained a headwind, with Malaysian inventories at a five-month high in July. Weak exports added pressure, as cargo surveyors noted August shipments fell 6.5–14.9% from July. Traders now brace for monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board later this week.

Malaysian palm oil futures steadied near MYR 4,900/t after recent declines, as firmer Dalian edible oil prices were offset by softer Chicago soyoils. Meanwhile, crude oil prices strengthened amid renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, raising supply concerns and supporting sentiment. Rising El Niño risks added a bullish factor, with drier conditions threatening Southeast Asian production. Output in top producer Indonesia is projected to fall 2.9% to 56.8 million tons in 2027. Indonesia is also set to maintain its B50 biodiesel mandate next year, with implementation reportedly reaching 80% so far. Demand prospects improved in India, where refiners imported record soyoil volumes and the most palm oil in six months ahead of festivals. However, futures were set for a second weekly loss, pressured by weak exports, as cargo surveyors estimated August shipments fell 6.5–14.9% from July. Meanwhile, ample supply persisted, with Malaysian inventories at a five-month high in July.