Nickel Futures Drop Amid Oversupply

2025-12-12 10:57 By Erika Ordonez 1 min. read

Nickel futures fell toward $14,600 per tonne in December, moving back toward the November low, which marked the weakest level in over seven months, as persistent oversupply continued to weigh on sentiment.

The market remained under pressure amid elevated global inventories, with LME stockpiles exceeding 250,000 tonnes after rising by around 90,000 tonnes so far this year.

Indonesia's efforts to curb excess supply, including reduced mining quotas and tighter rules limiting refining permits, have yet to fully curb the sector’s rapid capacity expansion in recent years.

Nickel Industries received approval to raise its 2025 nickel ore sales quota from 9 million to 10.5 million wet metric tonnes, resuming deliveries from the Hengjaya Mine into the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, supported by a five-year AMDAL permit and an in-pit tailings system.

On the demand side, global stainless-steel demand remains muted, though EV battery usage provides a partial offset.



News Stream
Nickel Falls Amid Weak Fundamentals
Nickel traded around $16,800 per tonne in late August, extending losses from the previous session, as continuous refined-nickel inventory surpluses and weak Chinese demand continued to weigh on prices. LME nickel inventories rose 0.8% in August to 268,314 tonnes, while Chinese stainless-steel futures fell below CNY 14,000, pointing to continued weakness in a key end-use sector. Additionally, the Philippines’ new critical-minerals framework aims to accelerate mineral exploration, processing and downstream investment, potentially supporting future nickel supply. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 2026 nickel ore quota stands at 260–270 million tonnes, well below the 379 million tonnes approved for 2025, pointing to tighter supply, although the possibility of additional quotas for smelters facing raw-material shortages could limit gains. Nickel is on track to fall roughly 2% in August and remains up more than 1% year to date.
2026-08-28
Nickel Recovers From Over One-Month Low
Nickel traded around $17,000 per tonne, recovering from an over one-month low as tighter Indonesian supply expectations provided support. Indonesia’s 2026 nickel ore quota remains at 260–270 million tonnes, well below the 379 million tonnes approved for 2025, pointing to tighter supply. Meanwhile, the government has indicated that additional quotas may be granted selectively to smelters facing raw-material shortages, raising the prospect of increased ore availability and limiting gains. At the same time, elevated LME and Chinese inventories continued to weigh on the market, pointing to ample refined nickel availability. Indonesia is also preparing to launch a strategic minerals and commodities exchange in January 2027, potentially including nickel, as Jakarta seeks greater influence over domestic commodity pricing.
2026-08-21
Nickel Falls to Over 1-Month Low
Nickel traded around $16,750 per tonne in August, retreating to its lowest level since early July as expectations of improved Indonesian supply weighed on prices. The decline followed reports that Indonesia may further relax supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas, with a major miner expected to receive additional allocations that would significantly increase its 2026 allocation and support downstream smelter feedstock availability in the second half of the year. Prices also came under pressure as easing concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reduced sulfur costs, lowering input cost pressures for nickel processing. Meanwhile, expectations that Indonesia will continue to manage nickel ore supply through RKAB quotas, along with elevated production costs, continued to provide some support.
2026-08-06