US Natural Gas Prices Rise on Higher LNG Flows

US natural gas prices rose to $3.05 per MMBtu on Wednesday, supported by rising LNG export activity. On a daily basis, feedgas deliveries to the nine major LNG export plants went up to 19.2 bcfd over the past two weeks, while flows so far this month stood at 18.3 bcfd, up from 17.9 bcfd in September. Growing demand for US LNG from European and Asian buyers also supported prices, as the two regions raced to secure supplies ahead of winter. However, gains were limited by forecasts for above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country, which could limit heating demand in the coming weeks. On the supply side, Lower 48 output averaged 112.0 bcfd so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, although daily production has recovered to around 113.5 bcfd over the past week.

US natural gas prices fell to $2.58 per MMBtu on Tuesday, having touched a two-year low in the previous session, as forecasts for warmer weather continued to weigh on demand expectations. Above-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern two-thirds of the country through November 9, according to EBW Analytics Group. This outlook has reinforced expectations that a Super El Niño would bring warmer weather this winter and reduce gas demand at a time when it is usually at its highest. The rise in production also added pressure to the market, with output across the Lower 48 states averaging 113.3 bcfd over the past week. However, monthly production so far this month stood at 111.9 bcfd, remaining below the record level of 113.3 bcfd recorded in both August and September. Meanwhile, average feedgas flows to the nine major LNG export terminals rose to 18.3 bcfd in October to date, up from 17.9 bcfd in September, limiting further price declines.

US natural gas prices dropped to as low as $2.53 per MMBtu, their lowest level since October 2024, as warm weather forecasts dampened expectations for near-term heating demand. Meteorologists expect temperatures to remain above normal across most of the northern two-thirds of the country, likely keeping heating demand subdued in the coming weeks. Prices also faced pressure from a recovery in daily production, with output across the US Lower 48 states averaging around 113.3 bcfd over the past week. However, production so far this month stood at 111.6 bcfd, below the record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September. Meanwhile, average gas flows to the nine major LNG export terminals rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September, providing some underlying support.