Natural Gas Rises to 1-Month High

US natural gas futures were above $3.2 per MMBtu in March, the highest in over one month, tracking the rise in global energy prices as the disruption of gas shipments from the Persian Gulf raised foreign demand for US liquified natural gas. Attacks from Iran to GCC nations and Israeli-US forces picked up in magnitude, dimming bets of imminent de-escalation to the conflict. The war drove QatarEnergy to halt operations in their LNG facilities, responsible for 20% of the global market. Additionally, LNG shipments from the UAE remained halted as tankers refrained from routing through the Strait of Hormuz. The events drove key Asian buyers of Middle Eastern LNG to compete with European importers for US product, lifting Henry Hub asking prices despite the ample domestic production. The latest data from the EIA showed that domestic stocks fell by 28 billion cubic feet in the first week of March, less than expected, reflecting the near end of withdrawing season.

US natural gas prices advanced toward 3.3 dollars per MMBtu on Thursday as the military conflict in the Middle East continues to reshape global energy expectations despite record domestic production. While the market recently processed a storage withdrawal of 41 billion cubic feet which was smaller than seasonal averages, the primary focus remains on supply risks in the Persian Gulf. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the indefinite production halt at the massive Ras Laffan facility in Qatar have pushed international prices higher while the United States remains somewhat isolated due to export capacity constraints. Investors are monitoring reports of fresh drone attacks on shipping routes that have undermined recent hopes for a diplomatic resolution. Although the International Energy Agency released massive reserves the threat to global gas flows keeps a floor under futures as traders prepare for a prolonged period of geopolitical instability.

US natural gas futures rose to around $3.2 per MMBtu, building on its advance from the previous session, as markets remained focused on the Middle East conflict. Iran has said it will only consider a ceasefire if the US guarantees that neither Washington nor Israel will strike again, a condition the US is unlikely to accept, dimming near-term prospects. The war has previously shut the world’s largest LNG export terminal, Ras Laffan in Qatar, which is now running at its longest outage since at least 2008, while the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Still, US natural gas prices have been relatively insulated compared with other global benchmarks, supported by ample domestic supply and LNG export capacity nearing its limit. Meanwhile, global efforts to curb surging energy prices have failed to offer relief, despite the IEA unveiling coordinated plans for an unprecedented release from strategic oil reserves.