US Natgas Prices Recover from 5-Month Low

US natural gas futures rose toward $2.9 per MMBtu, rebounding from the five month low of $2.83 in the previous session, supported by stronger LNG exports. Gas flows to export plants climbed to 18.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in February and are on track for a monthly record. However, upside remains limited as weather forecasts turned milder, with above average temperatures expected across much of the western United States through month end, curbing heating needs and power sector consumption. As winter nears its end, traders see a reduced risk of a late season cold spell tightening supplies. Production also stays high, with Lower 48 output averaging 108.7 bcfd in February versus 106.3 bcfd in January. Storage was about 6% below normal in mid February, but the deficit is seen narrowing to near 1%.

US natural gas futures fell below $3 per MMBtu, their lowest level since October, as warmer weather expectations dampened demand prospects. Updated forecasts point to above average temperatures across much of the western United States through the end of the month, reducing the need for heating and easing consumption from power plants. With winter nearing its close, traders see a lower chance of a late season cold spell that could tighten supplies. At the same time, production remains elevated, with Lower 48 output averaging 108.7 billion cubic feet per day in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. Storage was about 6% below normal in mid February, but analysts expect the deficit to narrow to around 1% after mild weather limited withdrawals. Still, LNG export flows have strengthened to 18.7 bcfd and are on track for a monthly record.

US natural gas futures pared gains to around 3.06 dollars per MMBtu after rising more than 4% earlier in the session, as traders reassessed demand strength against ample supply. Prices initially climbed on expectations that a powerful winter storm in the Northeast would lift heating demand, with a severe snowstorm shutting schools and disrupting flights, boosting consumption for heating and power generation. LNG exports also supported the move, as pipeline flows to export plants reached 20.2 billion cubic feet on Sunday, about 24% higher than a year ago and near record levels, while average flows to the nine major facilities rose to 18.6 bcfd in February. Still, forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration point to warmer than normal temperatures in coming weeks. Production also hit a record 108.7 bcfd in the Lower 48, signaling strong supply that may cap further gains.