Lumber Rebounds past $600

Lumber futures climbed past $600 per thousand board feet as stabilizing housing sentiment and tightening production capacity across North America reversed a two month downward trend. The NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 38 in March with buyer traffic and future sales expectations showing marginal gains despite persistent economic uncertainty. While 37% of builders continue to offer price cuts to attract buyers the market is finding support from a 29.1% surge in multifamily housing starts and a 7.2% rise in total residential construction activity. On the supply side mill closures and elevated duties on Canadian imports are projected to remove over 1.3 billion board feet from the market this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further pressure the outlook as rising energy costs inflate transport and shipping expenses for global timber. These factors suggest a shift toward a supply constrained environment that offsets the impact of high mortgage rates.

Lumber increased to 602.00 USD/1000 board feet, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber gained 1.1%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.51%.

Lumber futures fell toward $550 per thousand board feet, marking a two-month low as persistent imbalances in the North American housing market continue to erode commodity valuation. While January housing starts rose to 1.487 million units the growth in multi family projects failed to offset the 2.8% decline in single family construction which remains the primary driver of lumber consumption. High mortgage rates and elevated property prices have stalled new residential developments and left distributors with an oversupply of seasonal inventory. This supply glut has forced regional dealers to implement deep discounts to manage yard space during a period of unseasonably low jobsite activity. Furthermore the strengthening dollar has increased the cost of domestic production and limited export competitiveness for major mills. Still the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising energy costs remain critical factors that could shift the inflationary outlook for construction materials.