Heating Oil Drops on Iran Peace Prospects

2026-03-25 01:33 By Kyrie Dichosa 1 min. read

US heating oil futures dropped 10% to around $3.8 per gallon, reversing gains from the previous sessions, as hopes of a possible Middle East ceasefire eased concerns about further supply disruptions.

President Donald Trump said the US is engaged in talks with Iran and has delivered a 15-point proposal to end the conflict, reiterating this even as Tehran denied any direct negotiations and indicated it has no intention of restoring normal shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, uncertainty persists as the US increases its military presence in the region and explores measures to secure key oil transit routes.

Energy markets have remained highly volatile since the conflict began, with the strait, which handles about one-fifth of global oil flows, still largely shut.

Despite the pullback, US heating oil futures are still up more than 50% so far this month.



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Heating Oil Declines
Heating oil futures in the US fell below $4.10 per gallon in late July, pulling back from a nearly four-month high, as investors weighed improving shipping activity against ongoing geopolitical risks. Middle East oil shipments appeared to have picked up in recent days, with more vessels leaving the Persian Gulf undetected and two Saudi tankers successfully transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Separately, Saudi Arabia proposed an international maritime coalition to protect key shipping routes, with representatives from 43 countries participating in talks to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea following the Iran-backed Houthis' announced blockade against the kingdom. Meanwhile, Russian diesel supplies remained constrained by recent Ukrainian attacks on refineries, prompting Moscow to halt exports for all of July. Still, heating oil remained on track for a roughly 27% monthly gain as geopolitical tensions escalated earlier this month amid exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran.
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Heating oil futures in the US held above $4.25 per gallon in late July, hovering near their highest in nearly four months as the resumption of hostilities between Iran and the US prolonged the supply halt from the region. Iran launched attacks against US forces across the Middle East and Saudi oil and refining infrastructure, prompting the US and Saudi Arabia to attack Iranian forces in Iraq. The resumption of the conflict maintained expectations that Iran and Houthi Rebels will continue to attack tankers crossing the Red Sea and Persian Gulf in the near term, cutting supply from major producers. In the meantime, Russian diesel supply was also hampered by recent Ukrainian attacks on refineries, prompting Moscow to halt exports for all of July. Still, US distillate inventories rose more than expected for a third straight week through July 24, but wholesale fuel prices remained elevated as sharp commercial crude and SPR draws magnified the backdrop of tight supply.
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