Heating Oil Tracks Crude's Plunge

2025-11-19 13:38 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

US heating oil futures fell below $2.60 per gallon, retreating from April 2024 highs after a fresh inventory build eroded crude feedstock costs support while distillate supplies remained tight.

The API said US crude stocks rose 4.4 million barrels last week, the third straight weekly increase, and Vortexa data show crude on tankers climbing toward 1.4 billion barrels, signalling a swollen pool of floating or in transit supply that can relieve regional tightness.

The IEA is forecasting a possible global surplus next year which also softens forward pricing.

At the same time US distillate inventories sit well below seasonal norms and imminent sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil continue to complicate trade flows, keeping some buyers cautious.

Colder model runs for late November and early December have revived heating demand and triggered buying, so the market now balances softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness with weather likely to decide the next leg of the move.



News Stream
Heating Oil Holds Losses After EIA
Heating oil futures dropped toward $4 per gallon on Wednesday as traders weighed tentative hopes for a Middle East ceasefire against a tighter domestic supply outlook. The benchmark found relief after President Donald Trump indicated that Iran is seeking a ceasefire, with the President clarifying that the US would only consider a deal once the Strait of Hormuz is fully operational and secure. These developments helped pull energy prices back from the staggering highs seen in March when oil prices surged more than 50% marking their largest monthly gain since 2020. Meanwhile, US heating oil stockpiles slipped by 0.81 million barrels in the week ended March 27th following a 0.24 million-barrel decline in the previous week. This coincided with a significant decrease in distillate stocks which fell by 2.11 million barrels over three times the expected draw while crude oil inventories increased by a larger-than-expected 5.45 million barrels.
2026-04-01
Heating Oil Futures Extend Decline
Heating oil futures slid toward $4 per gallon Wednesday, extending a two-day decline, weighed by signs of easing Middle East tensions. President Trump indicated the US might withdraw forces from Iran within two to three weeks, noting that a formal agreement with Tehran is not required to end the conflict. Still, market caution remained, as Trump alternated between suggesting a near-term resolution and warning of possible military escalation. Meanwhile, additional US troops arrived in the region, and Tehran confirmed no peace talks are underway but said it is willing to end the war if its conditions are met. Heating oil recorded a historic 40% monthly surge in March, reflecting a broader supply squeeze caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows and has been largely blocked since the conflict began.
2026-04-01
Heating Oil Retreats Amid Diplomatic Hopes
Heating oil futures retreated past $4.1 per gallon trimming a historic monthly surge that peaked near $4.70 as new diplomatic overtures from Tehran tempered immediate supply fears. The pullback followed remarks from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who stated a conditional readiness to end regional hostilities provided that Western powers offer essential guarantees against future aggression. This shift in rhetoric matches recent attempts by President Trump to de-escalate the conflict and restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of global oil flows have remained disrupted throughout March. While the prospect of restored supply pressured energy benchmarks, the modest nature of the decline reflects deep market skepticism fueled by the damage to regional infrastructure and the continued movement of US troops to the Middle East. Despite the daily dip, heating oil remains on track for a record monthly gain of over 40%.
2026-03-31