Gasoline Futures Rise

US gasoline futures rose above $3.22 a gallon as traders weighed prospects for a Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire. Although President Trump claimed both sides agreed to one on Sunday, Ukraine reported continued Russian air strikes on its energy infrastructure and vowed to keep targeting Moscow’s energy facilities unless it agreed to halt the attacks. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz also continued to threaten supply, although flows have recovered to near 98% of pre-war levels. Fuel prices have eased in recent weeks but remain elevated, with 12.1% of global refining capacity offline as of September. Trump also said he was working with Russia to release diesel supplies to global markets, alongside a temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian fuel. Meanwhile, IEA chief Fatih Birol urged governments to accelerate planned diesel releases and consider boosting supplies. Elsewhere, Gulf of Mexico producers worked to restore offshore output following Hurricane Isaias.

US gasoline prices fell below $3.20 per gallon as traders assessed the prospect of easing supply pressures following President Donald Trump’s claim of an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was awaiting details of the deal, while Russia had yet to comment. Trump’s announcement followed his statement last week that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets to help lower fuel prices, alongside his administration’s temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian fuel. Meanwhile, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol urged governments to accelerate planned diesel releases and consider boosting supplies. However, renewed strikes on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continued to threaten regional energy flows. Elsewhere, Gulf of Mexico oil producers were working to restore offshore output after Hurricane Isaias made landfall.

US gasoline futures traded around $3.30 per gallon, holding most of their recent gains amid persistent supply concerns. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh US sanctions on Iran kept concerns over regional energy shipments elevated, although President Trump's pledge to avoid military action against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections offered some relief. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias prompted the shutdown of about 1.3 million barrels per day of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico, or roughly 63% of regional output, adding to near-term supply risks. Russian refinery disruptions and diesel-export restrictions, alongside China's reported suspension of some October fuel exports, added to broader refined-product market tightness. However, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 382 thousand barrels in the week ended October 2, rebounding after two consecutive weekly draws, although stocks remained 6% below the five-year average.