Gasoline Prices Retreat

US gasoline prices slid to around $3.28 per gallon on Monday, retreating from a two-month high as reports of a pause in hostilities between Iran and the US offered some respite from supply concerns. Washington has paused its bombing campaign since late Friday after nearly two weeks of strikes. A senior Iranian official said Tehran would halt attacks if the US also refrains from further strikes, adding that the message had already been conveyed to Washington. The lull in hostilities coincided with Omani-mediated talks in Tehran on a provisional arrangement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Ukraine shifted its focus from Russian oil refineries to maritime targets, though supply concerns persisted after earlier attacks damaged 24 of Russia's 34 largest refineries.

US gasoline futures fell below $3.45 per gallon, after reaching over a two-month high of $3.50 on July 23rd, as optimism over possible US-Iran peace talks pressured crude oil prices. Reports over Pakistan's attempt to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran, following diplomatic efforts led by China, raised hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, although US President Donald Trump warned of interference. Meanwhile, Ukraine shifted its attacks from major Russian oil refineries to maritime targets, although fuel supply concerns persisted after earlier strikes damaged 24 of Russia's 34 largest refineries. Still, geopolitical risks remained elevated, with US-Iran strikes nearing deep into a second week of attacks. US missile strikes struck across Iran while President Donald Trump threatened "major military punishment" against Tehran and its Houthi allies as the conflict expanded across a second key maritime chokepoint.

US gasoline futures held above $3.47 per gallon, reaching the highest level since the end of May, as the US-Iran conflict escalated to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, fueling concerns over further disruptions to energy supply. Nearing a second consecutive week of strikes, a new front in the conflict opened in the Red Sea after President Donald Trump said Iran would be held responsible for any further attacks, following claims by Iran-backed Houthi rebels of strikes on two Saudi oil tankers. Tankers have increasingly avoided the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of another disruption to a key global shipping route. Adding to the pressure, earlier Ukrainian strikes on 24 out of 34 largest Russian refineries, and US refineries running at 96.1% of their capacity, further weighed on refined supply outlook. Still, fuel supplies in Russia showed signs of improving after Ukraine shifted attacks away from major oil refineries toward maritime targets.