Gasoline Heads for Biggest Monthly Rise Since 2020

US gasoline futures fell below $3.1 per gallon but remained on track for a monthly gain of over 30%, the largest since May 2020, as markets continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. President Donald Trump said he would postpone action on Iran’s energy sector, noting that Iran had requested seven days but he granted ten, moving the deadline to April 6. Analysts said the extended ceasefire eases short-term pressure, but with 8 million barrels per day offline and Persian Gulf flows still at risk, the geopolitical premium is likely to remain significant. Seasonal demand pressures are also rising as spring travel picks up and refineries switch to costlier summer fuel blends. Earlier this week, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.1 million-barrel draw.

US gasoline futures rose above $3.0 per gallon, trimming losses from the previous session, as markets weighed mixed signals from the US and Iran on ending the conflict. Iran said it has no plans for direct talks with the US, noting that mediated exchanges do not amount to negotiations. This differs from the White House, which insists that peace talks are ongoing, while also warning that the US could escalate military action if Iran refuses to acknowledge its losses. Energy markets have been volatile since the conflict began, with gasoline prices still up over 30% this month due to supply disruptions in the Strait and seasonal demand factors. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations of a 2.1 million-barrel draw. Elsewhere, the US is planning to expand summer sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline by waiving volatility requirements.

US gasoline futures slid over 5% to around $2.9 per gallon on Wednesday, reversing gains from the previous session, as prospects of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East raised expectations of easing disruptions to global oil supply. President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are currently in negotiations, despite Tehran denying any direct talks. Reports also indicated that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war. Energy markets have remained volatile since the conflict began, with gasoline still up more than 30% so far this month after recently reaching its highest level since July 2022, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait and the seasonal shift to costlier summer fuel blends. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly planning to expand summer sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline by waiving US volatility requirements.