Gasoline Hits April 2024 Highs

US gasoline futures surged over 6% above $3.28 per gallon, ending a two-day decline and following gains in crude prices, after President Trump signaled that the US could take military action against Iran in the coming weeks. In his rare prime-time address, Trump offered no timeline for resolving the Middle East conflict, saying the US had nearly achieved its strategic objectives in Iran but warning that military operations could intensify over the next two to three weeks. The statement elevated the risk of more widespread damage to energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf region. Meanwhile, Iran rejected Trump’s claim that it had sought a ceasefire, asserting that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that the vital transit route is firmly under IRGC Navy control. Elsewhere, US gasoline inventories fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel draw.

US gasoline futures slid toward $3.10 per gallon on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, weighed by signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. President Trump said the US could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks and suggested a formal deal with Tehran is not required for the conflict to end. Markets remained cautious, however, as he oscillated between signaling a near-term agreement and warning of potential escalation. At the same time, additional US troops arrived in the region, and Tehran said no peace talks were underway but indicated it is ready to end the war if its conditions are met. Meanwhile, gasoline posted a historic 30% monthly surge in March, driven by a broader supply shock from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows have been nearly halted since the war began.

US gasoline futures retreated past $3.2 per gallon on Tuesday as a historic 30% monthly surge cooled following a significant diplomatic opening from Tehran. The price retreat was triggered by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressing a readiness to end regional hostilities provided that Western powers offer essential guarantees and reparations. This shift in rhetoric matches recent attempts by President Trump to de-escalate the conflict and potentially restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz where roughly 20% of global oil flows have remained disrupted throughout March. While the prospect of restored supply pressured energy benchmarks the modest nature of the decline reflects deep market skepticism fueled by the recent damage to the Al-Salmi tanker and the continued movement of US troops to the Middle East. Despite the daily dip gasoline remains on track for its largest monthly gain on record amid the broader supply shock from the nearly total closure of key corridors.