European Natural Gas Prices Fall

European natural gas prices fell below €59 per megawatt-hour as hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations eased concerns over energy supplies. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said the two sides were “close to some sort of arrangement,” while talks between Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly at an advanced stage. A deal could help restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf and reduce pressure on European gas markets. Despite the optimism, Commerzbank raised its year-end European gas price forecast to €50/MWh from €45/MWh, while Uniper expects prices to remain around €50-€60/MWh as long as Hormuz remains closed. European storage levels recently fell to the lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Meanwhile, persistent European heatwaves are boosting power demand and adding further pressure to gas markets.

European natural gas prices climbed to €61.8 per MWh on Tuesday, extending Monday's rally, as the prospect of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded amid demands from the US and Iran. President Trump on Monday called for Iran to compensate for people it has killed in conflicts, after Tehran sought compensation for damage caused by US and Israeli attacks. This tempered hopes for an immediate resolution that would restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf. The ongoing disruption has tightened global LNG supplies, intensifying competition with Asian buyers and hampering Europe’s efforts to replenish gas stockpiles before winter. European storage levels recently fell to the lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Traders also monitor the extended supply cuts at the Ormen Lange gas field in Norway, Europe’s largest pipeline supplier, as this could further tighten Europe’s already strained gas market and amplify price volatility.

European natural gas prices rose to €58 per MWh on Monday, recouping most of the previous week’s losses amid uncertainty over the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman remained short of a final agreement over the weekend after Tehran renewed a lengthy list of demands for Washington as conditions for a full reopening of the strategic waterway, indicating any immediate relief for gas supplies could remain limited. Although Iran indicated that a deal was close, it cautioned that this did not mean the strait would reopen imminently, while again ruling out any direct negotiations with the US. With a deal still elusive, disruptions to LNG shipments through the key waterway are likely to persist, delaying cargoes from major exporters such as Qatar. The ongoing delays have kept global supply balances tight, intensifying competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes and hampering Europe's winter stockpiling efforts.