EU Gas Advances Further

European natural gas rose further to around €54.3 per MWh on Wednesday, hovering at the highest level in more than three months, as mounting tensions in the Middle East fueled concerns over LNG availability. President Donald Trump warned that the US would target Iranian bridges and power infrastructure next week unless Tehran returns to negotiations. His warning came as US forces carried out strikes on Iran for a fourth consecutive day and resumed a blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Trump backed away from an earlier threat to impose a 20% "security" fee on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would instead be replaced by Gulf state investments in the US. Concerns remain focused on Qatar, a key global LNG exporter, as fresh disruptions to exports from the Ras Laffan complex could curb supplies to Europe at a crucial time for replenishing gas inventories ahead of winter.

European natural gas prices climbed to €53.1 per MWh on Tuesday, extending Monday's rally to hit an over three-month high, after President Donald Trump ordered the resumption of a blockade on Iranian ports and demanded a 20% security fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade is set to take effect at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, dashing hopes for a near-term normalization of shipping activity through the waterway. LNG exports from the Middle East had only recently begun to recover, with Qatar ramping up production and shipments following the US-Iran interim agreement in June. However, the renewed hostilities have abruptly halted that recovery, raising concerns over fresh disruptions to LNG exports from the region. Such disruptions could tighten global gas supplies just as Europe is racing to refill storage facilities ahead of the next winter.

European natural gas prices rose more than 5% to around €51.4 per MWh on Monday, recouping losses from the previous session as renewed attacks between the US and Iran heightened concerns over LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command said American forces launched another wave of strikes on dozens of targets across Iran, aimed at weakening Tehran’s ability to threaten maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. Iran retaliated by attacking countries in the region hosting US military forces, including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Conflicting statements over the status of the strait added to uncertainty, with the US saying the waterway remains open, while Iran claimed it had closed the passage "until further notice." Market participants remain on high alert, as any prolonged conflict or direct damage to LNG export infrastructure in the Gulf could complicate Europe's efforts to replenish storage ahead of the winter heating season.