TTF Gas Hits 3-year High

European natural gas prices were at €50 per megawatt hour in May, remaining relatively close to their highest level in six months on fresh skepticism that the US would reach an imminent agreement with Iran to restore energy exports out of the Persian Gulf. Hawkish rhetoric from Iranian officials weighed against Washington's signal that both countries were close to agreeing on a deal. The developments maintained the loose halt in exports from major GCC producers since March amid the naval blockade for tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, removing a key source of LNG supply for Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, gas sources from Norway were higher to weigh against shortages elsewhere. Maintenance in the Troll field eased and Norwegian exports rose early 40% to 260 million cubic meters per day.

European natural gas futures fell to €49.2 per megawatt hour, though prices remained close to a six-week high as investors continued to grapple with persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed. President Donald Trump renewed warnings that the US could launch further strikes on Iran if no agreement is reached, shortly after saying he had postponed a planned attack. Now in its 12th week, the conflict has severely disrupted shipping flows through the Strait, affecting roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, while hostilities have also spread to key production assets in Qatar. Investors are closely monitoring Europe’s LNG imports, as the region races to secure enough fuel this summer to replenish storage ahead of next winter.

European natural gas futures fell to around €49.8 per MWh, retreating from a near six-week high amid renewed hopes for a US–Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has held off on immediate military action against Iran after Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE requested additional time to pursue negotiations over a nuclear deal. Separately, reports suggested that Iran had agreed to a long-term freeze of its nuclear program rather than a full dismantlement of its facilities. Roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply has been disrupted since the conflict began in late February, with hostilities extending to key production assets in Qatar. The situation raised serious concerns for Europe, particularly as the region needs to refill storage ahead of the next winter.