TTF Gas Prices Poised to Jump on Middle East Supply Fears

European natural gas futures are expected to jump on Monday as escalating Middle East tensions threaten global LNG supplies. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have raised regional instability, with Tehran blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for nearly 20% of global LNG trade, including exports from Qatar. While Qatari volumes account for about 15% of Europe’s LNG imports, any disruption would likely hit Asian buyers hardest, intensifying competition for alternative cargoes and tightening the global market, with knock-on effects for Europe. The risk is amplified by low EU gas storage levels, now below 31% versus 40% a year ago. Germany’s storage stands at 20.5% and France’s at 21%, leaving the region more exposed to supply shocks.

European natural gas futures rose past €32/MWh after Iranian state media said Tehran would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country, underscoring tensions in ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ahead of President Donald Trump’s deadline for a deal. While Omani mediators earlier described the discussions as constructive, fears of escalation revived concerns over potential supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global LNG trade, including exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Any blockage would significantly tighten global gas availability, especially for Europe, which has relied more heavily on LNG since losing most Russian pipeline flows. On top of that, EU gas storage remains low, with inventories below 31% versus 40% a year ago, including Germany at 20.5% and France at 21%. Still, rising wind and solar output and strong LNG arrivals into March could help ease supply pressures.

European natural gas futures traded around €31 per megawatt hour as markets focused on geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for about 20% of global LNG. Comments from Donald Trump that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program fueled concerns about potential military action and possible disruptions to tanker traffic through the waterway. Low storage levels also offered support, with EU inventories below 31% compared with 40.7% a year ago, including Germany at 20.7% and France at 21.1%. However, wind and solar output in north-west Europe is set to rise, reducing gas demand from power plants. LNG send out is strong with heavy cargo arrivals into March.