TTF Prices Rebound from 5-Week Low

European natural gas prices surged as high as €60.5 per MWh during Asian trading on Monday, marking a four-month high, before trimming gains to around €58.5, amid mounting fears of deeper supply disruptions as hostilities between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend. The US Central Command said on Sunday that it had carried out a fresh round of strikes against Iran for the ninth consecutive night, while Kuwait and Bahrain reported Iranian attacks. The conflict has widened beyond military targets to include bridges, utility infrastructure, and port facilities, increasing the risk of a return to full-scale war. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has largely come to a halt, with the US enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and Tehran targeting vessels it says are violating its regulations. These supply risks, coupled with stronger demand for power generation, are making it more difficult for Europe to refill its vast storage facilities before winter.

European natural gas prices climbed above €56 per MWh on Friday, the highest in nearly four months, amid increasing threats to Persian Gulf supplies as US-Iran attacks intensified. The US carried out fresh strikes on Iran on Thursday, following previous attacks that struck an unladen oil tanker bound for Iranian ports after the reimposition of a blockade. Tehran has countered with attacks targeting US military bases in neighboring countries and has reportedly called Yemen’s Houthi rebel group to shut the Red Sea export route if Washington targets Iranian power infrastructure. EU gas prices have surged over 15% this week and more than 29% so far in July, erasing an over 14% decline in Q2, as supply disruptions and stronger power generation demand constrain Europe’s ability to rebuild inventories before winter. Supply concerns were exacerbated after Qatar, the Middle East's largest LNG exporter, halted plans to boost production after one of its tankers was attacked near Hormuz.

European natural gas prices held at an over three-month high around €54.5 per MWh on Thursday, as continued US attacks on Iran heightened fears over LNG flows from the region. Following the reimposition of its naval blockade, the US launched another round of strikes targeting Iran's coastal defenses and missile sites and said it had fired on an empty oil tanker en route to an Iranian port. Tehran responded by warning it could disrupt more regional energy exports, describing the conflict as an "existential war" with the US. The latest escalation comes at a particularly sensitive time for Europe, which is in the middle of refilling its gas facilities ahead of winter. Any prolonged disruption to LNG exports from the region could tighten global supplies, potentially forcing European buyers into more intense and costly competition with Asian importers for available cargoes.