TTF Rises 2% after EU Approves 19th Package of Russia Sanctions

European natural gas futures fell below €44 per MWh on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, as markets weighed prospects of a US-Iran deal that could lead to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington and Tehran are reportedly moving closer to an agreement on a one page of memorandum to end their conflict, with Iran expected to respond in the coming days. The latest US proposal came after President Trump briefly suspended an initiative to provide safe passage for vessels through the strait. The effective closure of the vital waterway has choked off around one-fifth of global LNG supply, with the route currently facing a dual blockade from both sides. While most gas from the Persian Gulf are directed toward Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply, raising concerns in Europe as the region needs to replenish inventories before next winter.

European natural gas futures plunged more than 8% to below €43 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, as optimism grew over a potential US-Iran agreement to end the conflict. Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are close to a preliminary deal that could pave the way for broader nuclear negotiations, boosting hopes of de escalation and easing supply risks. President Donald Trump also announced a temporary halt to “Project Freedom,” a military effort aimed at securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in talks. The conflict and near closure of the key waterway had disrupted around one fifth of global LNG supply, driving prices higher and unsettling energy markets. Although most Middle East gas flows to Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply and raised concerns in Europe, which needs to rebuild inventories ahead of winter. Storage levels are currently around 34%, well below the five year average, keeping traders cautious despite the improved outlook.

European natural gas futures fell to €45.7 per MWh, retreating further from a four-week high after President Trump hinted at progress toward a peace deal with Iran. Trump said that operations to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz would be briefly paused in a bid to reach a deal with Iran to end the war. However, he maintained restrictions on Iranian ports. This followed comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the ceasefire remains intact and that the initial US-Israeli offensive in Iran was over after achieving its objectives. Meanwhile, Iran denied carrying out attacks against the UAE and warned of retaliation if Abu Dhabi launches strikes on its territory. The strait has been effectively closed for the past two months, cutting roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. Prices have climbed about 40% since the start of the conflict, although they have recently eased amid weak demand from some Asian buyers.