Crude Oil at Over 1-Month Low

Crude oil pared its early losses to trade around $89.5 a barrel on Tuesday, after falling below $87 earlier in the session as supply concerns resurfaced. A Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia, while reports indicated that Iran had stepped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the past days. However, signs of improving supply flows continued to weigh on prices. Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources announced that the East-West oil pipeline had restored its crude pumping capacity to 5.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. Despite these measures, the EIA projected Brent crude prices at $105 a barrel in Q4 2026, $14 higher than its previous forecast.

Crude oil fell for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, approaching $87 a barrel, the lowest since early September, amid signs that Middle Eastern crude exports are recovering. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister said that oil flows through the East-West Pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels, while Reuters reported that shipments through the route had not been interrupted. In addition, reports showed that crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September. Adding to the bearish pressure, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. Saudi Arabia also sharply cut the price of its flagship crude grade for Asian buyers as supply flows improved, providing further evidence of a loosening market. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November.

Crude oil dropped below $89 per barrel on Tuesday, sliding for the third straight session, pressured by signs that Middle East crude exports are recovering toward pre-war levels. JPMorgan said crude shipments have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while product flows such as diesel and gasoline reached 3 million barrels a day, or 58%. Gulf producers are moving larger volumes through the Strait of Hormuz despite elevated shipping risks, with Iraq seeking to hire additional vessels to transport its cargoes through the waterway. Kuwait also said it is pumping oil at around 75% of the level seen before the Iran war. In addition, Saudi Arabia sharply reduced the price of its flagship crude grade for Asian buyers as supply flows improved, further signaling a loosening market. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the US EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, due later today, for fresh insights into the US energy market.