Crude Suffers Worst Quarterly Fall Since 2020

Crude oil traded near $70.7 per barrel on Tuesday, recording a roughly 30% drop in Q2, which represents its largest quarterly decline since 2020. This plunge follows a surge in supply as traffic accelerated through the Strait of Hormuz after progress toward a peace deal released oil previously trapped inside the Persian Gulf. Additionally, US sanction waivers granted to Iran have introduced extra volumes into a market already trying to absorb major supply workarounds. Diplomatic efforts continue as Washington and Tehran send delegations to Doha for negotiations to end the four-month war, though Iran has ruled out direct talks. Meanwhile, Iran maintains its stance on controlling maritime traffic through the waterway. Iranian officials expressed a desire to co-regulate the strategic channel with Oman, but affirmed that Tehran will advance its own regulatory plans independently if necessary to oversee the strait's picking up flows.

Crude oil fell toward $70 per barrel on Tuesday, paring gains from the previous session as investors turned their focus to the resumption of US-Iran peace talks in Doha, while mixed signals from both sides continued to cloud the outlook. Tehran maintained that it intends to continue overseeing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz even if Oman opts not to participate. Under the current interim agreement, Iran will not impose transit fees for 60 days, though it leaves open the possibility of introducing charges afterward, a proposal opposed by the US, Europe, and Gulf Arab states. Shipping through the strategic waterway slowed over the weekend following renewed clashes that left two vessels damaged, although tanker operators and their crews have shown a willingness to continue transiting the route. WTI crude is on track to decline about 19% for the month and over 24% for the quarter as peace efforts and expectations of increased oil flows from the Persian Gulf weighed on prices.

Crude oil prices rose past $70 per barrel on Monday, rebounding slightly from a four-month low as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined. While commercial vessels continued navigating the strategic waterway following a temporary pause in hostilities, overall transit numbers declined after weekend attacks severely damaged corporate confidence. Geopolitical attention has shifted to immediate diplomatic efforts, with US President Donald Trump announcing that the US and Iran are scheduled to hold fresh peace talks on Tuesday in Doha, Qatar. This diplomatic push follows a volatile weekend involving US retaliatory strikes against Iranian military targets. Despite the recent escalation, both nations agreed to suspend direct conflicts to allow maritime trade to resume, helping sustain a broader downward trend in energy costs that has rolled back crude prices to levels last seen before the war began on February 28.