Oil Set to Rise Sharply

Crude oil traded near $102 a barrel on Monday after reaching a four-month high of $105 earlier in the session. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to halt attacks on Russian energy targets if Russia agrees to do the same. He added that “Ukraine is not convinced that Russia is willing to abide by any agreement.” Zelenskyy’s conditional statement undercut a claim by US President Trump that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to suspend strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia closed its critical pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, further constraining global supplies. Drones launched from Iraq damaged the East-West pipeline on Thursday, forcing the Saudi government to shut it down. A diplomatic meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states to discuss the situation in Hormuz was abruptly postponed following the pipeline attack. The number of commodity vessels observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits over the weekend.

Crude oil traded at $102 per barrel on Monday from the four-month high of $105 earlier in the session, after US President Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine agreed to suspend strikes against opposing energy infrastructure. Recent attacks on Russian refiners had cut the country's capacity and drove the major producer to become a diesel importer since July. Still, low supply from the Middle East maintained crude above the $100 threshold. Saudi Arabia was forced to close its East-West pipeline following attacks from Iraqi territory. The strikes suspended activity in infrastructure that was allocating 7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil to the Red Sea, acting as an alternative to halted shipments through the Persian Gulf due to the Iranian blockade on GCC oil exports. Meanwhile, scheduled talks between the GCC and Iran, aimed at conjuring joint efforts to restart oil supply from the region, were postponed by Tehran.

Crude oil rose past $104 per barrel on Monday, the highest in four months, on mounting curbs to supply from the Middle East due to the war in Iran. Saudi Arabia was forced to close its East-West pipeline following attacks from Iraqi territory. The strikes suspended activity in infrastructure that was allocating 7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil to the Red Sea, acting as an alternative to halted shipments through the Persian Gulf due to the Iranian blockade on GCC oil exports. Meanwhile, scheduled talks between the GCC and Iran, aimed at conjuring joint efforts to restart oil supply from the region, were postponed by Tehran. The events deepened the prolonged halt of tanker flows from the region that have driven major oil producers to halt their operations, with Saudi output recently dropping to its lowest since 1990. Dwindling stockpiles of oil in China drove the major importer to raise orders in August, while the US SPR stands at a near record low.