Oil Set to Rise Sharply

Crude oil fell below $70 a barrel on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level since late February, as increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran peace talks eased supply fears. Shipowners are confidently transiting the chokepoint with active satellite signals following safety guarantees from the International Maritime Organization. The International Energy Agency estimates the United Arab Emirates is exporting oil at nearly 85% of pre-war levels, selling roughly 60 million barrels from the Persian Gulf recently. Consequently, oil prices have dropped about 40% from their wartime peak. This resumed global flow overshadowed US data from the Energy Information Administration showing US crude inventories plunged to their lowest since 1984, with Cushing stockpiles dipping below operational minimums.

Crude oil fell below $71 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest level since before the US-Iran conflict, as increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progressing peace talks boosted market confidence. Also, President Donald Trump said there would be no tolls, insurance costs or charges of any kind for tankers looking to pass through the strait. Shipowners are openly transiting the waterway with active satellite signals following safety guarantees from the International Maritime Organization. Reflecting this revitalized flow, the IEA estimates the United Arab Emirates is exporting oil at nearly 85% of pre-war levels, selling roughly 60 million barrels from the Persian Gulf recently. Consequently, oil prices have collapsed about 40% from their wartime peak. However, some domestic tightness persists, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting that Cushing crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels, potentially dipping below critical minimum operating levels.

Crude oil fell toward $72 per barrel on Wednesday, moving closer to levels seen before the Middle East conflict began as a growing number of tankers resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid advances in US-Iran peace negotiations. The International Maritime Organization said it had received security assurances that could enable hundreds of vessels to leave the Persian Gulf via Hormuz, as efforts continue to evacuate thousands of seafarers. The IEA also reported that UAE oil exports in early June rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels, supported by the use of pipelines, storage facilities, and alternative shipping routes. Adding to supply expectations, a new 60-day US waiver allows global buyers, including US refiners, to purchase Iranian crude and refined products. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman announced the start of discussions on a joint framework for managing Hormuz transit, including fee structures, raising concerns that Tehran could impose passage charges.