Oil Extends Gains as Geopolitical Risks Mount

WTI crude oil futures soared 11% to cross $111 per barrel on Thursday, the highest in nearly four years, regaining traction on a volatile session as markets reconsidered the magnitude of supply risks from the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf. US President Trump pledged to escalate attacks on Iran and their infrastructure in the next weeks if Tehran does not accept American ceasefire conditions, prompting Tehran to retaliate the aggressive rhetoric. Earlier in the session oil prices have eased on reports that Oman and Iran were coordinating a toll for tankers crossing the Hormuz chokepoint, but optimism over the outlook of normalized supplies was short-lived. Consequently, dated Brent benchmarks rose to past $140 per barrel, the highest since 2008. Meanwhile, the UK is hosting talks with dozens of countries on securing the route, while OPEC+ is considering a potential output increase, though any additional supply is unlikely to impact markets in the near term.

WTI crude futures pared some of their earlier gains to around $108.8 per barrel on Thursday, after surging more than 13% during the session, remaining close to their highest level since June 2022. Prices eased slightly following reports that Iran is working with Oman on a protocol to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising cautious hopes of improved oversight in the key shipping route. Still, the market remains supported by escalating tensions after President Donald Trump warned the conflict with Iran could continue for weeks and pledged intensified US strikes, heightening fears of prolonged supply disruptions. His remarks offered no clear path toward reopening the strait, reinforcing uncertainty. Meanwhile, the UK is hosting talks with dozens of countries on securing the route, while OPEC+ is considering a potential output increase, though any additional supply is unlikely to impact markets in the near term.

WTI crude oil futures surged more than 12% to above $112 per barrel on Thursday, the highest level since June 2022, after President Donald Trump signaled the Iran conflict could continue for weeks and warned of intensified US military action. His remarks, which included a pledge to strike Iran “extremely hard” over the coming weeks, raised fears of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply, particularly as no clear path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz was outlined. Markets reacted to the lack of any ceasefire or diplomatic signals, reinforcing concerns over tightening supply. Meanwhile, the UK is hosting a virtual meeting with around 40 countries to explore options for reopening the key shipping route, though the US is not expected to participate. OPEC+ is also considering a potential output increase, but any additional supply is unlikely to reach markets in the near term.