Cotton Hits 4-week Low

Cotton decreased to 84.87 USd/Lbs, the lowest since August 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cotton lost 0.5%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 30.59%.

Cotton prices traded below 85 cents per pound, their lowest level since mid-August, as traders assessed demand and supply conditions. The latest WASDE report showed that the demand outlook remained unchanged, although US consumption is set to decrease 6.3% to 13.2 million bales. Meanwhile, production in Brazil increased 1.4% to 18.5 million bales, while exports rose 1.3%. For 2025/26, Brazilian output is estimated to reach a record 4.5 million tons of lint, according to Agroconsult. Providing some support, the USDA’s weekly export sales report showed shipments of 73.9 hundred in the week ending September 3rd, rebounding after two consecutive weeks of declines, although exports are expected to remain unchanged in September at 12.3 million bales. Still, US output is set to decline 3% as crop conditions worsen, with only 36% of US cotton crops rated good or excellent in the week ending September 13th.

Cotton futures fell below $0.87 per pound, easing from a more than two-year high as traders took profits following the recent rally driven by concerns over tighter supply. The latest USDA crop progress report showed 39% of US cotton crops rated good or excellent, improving from 37% the previous week, easing some supply concerns. Additionally, export sales declined for the second week. In Brazil, intense heat and severe drought accelerated harvesting, with 88.7% of the crop harvested. However, weather risks remain significant. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to persist through February 2027, potentially affecting crops across key producing regions. In India, below-average monsoon rainfall remains a concern after August precipitation came in 16% below normal, particularly given that nearly half of the country’s farmland lacks irrigation. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in West Texas linked to Cyclone Eduardo is threatening yields, adding to uncertainty over the global cotton supply outlook.