Cotton Falls to One-Month Low

Cotton futures fell below 81 cents per pound but remained near a two-month low amid prospects of rising global supply. The latest WASDE report raised its global production forecast for the August 2026–July 2027 season to 25.8 million tonnes from 25.66 million previously, driven by higher projections for the US (2.93 million vs. 2.88 million tonnes) and Brazil (4.15 million vs. 4.03 million tonnes). Export competition is also expected to intensify, with Brazil’s export forecast raised to 3.48 million tonnes from 3.38 million. Shipments from Brazil between July and September of 2026 increased 18% from a year earlier to 453 thousand tonnes. Meanwhile, US exports have declined in recent weeks, though forecasts remain unchanged at 2.69 million tonnes between August 2026 and July 2027. Adding to the bearish pressure, 23% of the US crop has been harvested, above the historical average of 21%. However, a hurricane threatening cotton crops in Alabama and the Delta could pose risks to supply.

Cotton futures traded around 80 cents per pound, near its lowest level in two months, amid concerns over the weather and its impact on crops. Heavy rainfall across Texas, a key US cotton-growing region, raised concerns over crop quality, particularly where bolls had already opened. However, no further rain is forecast this week, limiting the upside for prices. Providing an offsetting pressure, the US harvest is quickly progressing, with 23% of the crop harvested compared with the historical average of 21%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA crop progress report. Adding to the bearish pressure is an intensifying competition in global markets. Brazil exported a record 3.37 million tonnes between August 2025 and July 2026, an increase of 19% from the previous marketing year. US exports reached approximately 2.61 million tonnes over the same period.

Cotton futures plunged below 80 cents per pound, approaching their lowest level in three months, pressured by rising new-crop supplies and subdued export demand. The US harvest is progressing faster than both last year and the five-year average, with 17% of the crop harvested compared with the historical average of 15%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA NASS Crop Progress report. Ample supplies from Brazil are adding to the bearish pressure, with the country producing more than 4.1 million tonnes and exporting a record 3.37 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 19% from the previous season, intensifying competition in global markets. Meanwhile, import demand from key Asian consumers remains weak. China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, imported just 80,000 tonnes in August 2026, down 12.1% from 90,000 tonnes in July.