Cotton Rises to Late-October Highs

Cotton futures rose toward 66 cents per pound, the highest since late October, fueled by a sharp surge in demand and tightening supply projections. Recent USDA data revealed a marketing-year high for export sales, with 466,300 bales sold in a single week, a 70% increase over the prior month, led by heavy buying from Vietnam and Bangladesh. This demand spike coincides with the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum projecting a 3% decline in global 2026/27 production to 116 million bales. Despite this bullish momentum, the market faces headwinds from a proposed 15% global import tariff and rising competition for US acreage, as soybeans are expected to expand by 6% at cotton’s expense. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Anea reports that while the 2024/25 harvest hit a record 4.26 million tons, the 2025/26 crop is forecast to drop 9% due to shrinking margins. As China ramps up synthetic fiber production, the market remains caught between shrinking acreage and shifting global demand.

Cotton increased to 64.56 USd/Lbs, the highest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cotton gained 0.3%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 2.38%.

Cotton futures traded around 64.4 cents per pound, the highest since January 19, as traders closely monitored the global supply and demand outlook for the natural fiber. According to the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, 2026/27 global cotton production is projected to fall 3% to 116 million bales, while consumption rises to 120.1 million bales, a combination that is expected to tighten stocks and support higher prices. In the meantime, the USDA in its February WASDE report raised its forecast for 2025/26 global cotton production by 425,000 bales from January to 119.86 million bales, alongside a 200,000-bale reduction in consumption. Meanwhile, Brazil's National Association of Cotton Exporters (Anea) reported at its first bimonthly meeting of 2026 that the 2024/2025 harvest reached 4.26 million tons, the largest volume in recent years. For the newly planted 2025/2026 crop, it projects production of 3.873 million tons, an approximate 9% reduction compared to the previous record cycle.